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Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas

机译:风力发电和区域市场价格差异:来自德克萨斯州的证据

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摘要

The extant literature on wind generation and wholesale electricity spot prices says little about how wind generation may affect any price differences between two inter-connected sub-markets. Using extensive data from the four ERCOT zones of Texas, this paper develops a two-stage model to attack the issue. The first stage is an ordered-logit regression to identify and quantify, for example, the impact of wind generation in the West zone on the estimated probability of a positive or negative price difference between the North and West zones. The second stage is a log-linear regression model that identifies and quantifies the estimated impact of wind generation on the sizes of those positive and negative price differences. It is shown that high wind generation and low load in the wind-rich ERCOT West zone tend to lead to congestion and zonal price differences, that those differences are time-dependent, and that other factors such as movements in nuclear generation and natural-gas prices, as well as fluctuating non-West zone loads, also play a role. The results have broad implications for energy policy makers that extend well beyond the borders of Texas and, indeed, those of the United States.
机译:关于风力发电和批发电力现货价格的现有文献很少提及风力发电如何影响两个相互连接的子市场之间的价格差异。本文使用得克萨斯州四个ERCOT区域的大量数据,开发了一个两阶段模型来解决这一问题。第一阶段是有序logit回归,以识别和量化(例如)西区风力发电对北区和西区之间正价或负价差的估计概率的影响。第二阶段是对数线性回归模型,该模型可以识别和量化风力发电对正负价格差异大小的估计影响。结果表明,在风力充沛的ERCOT西区,高风能发电和低负荷往往会导致交通拥挤和区域价格差异,这些差异是时间依赖性的,其他因素例如核能发电和天然气的流动价格以及非西区负荷的波动也起了作用。这一结果对能源政策制定者产生了广泛的影响,这些决策者远远超出了德克萨斯州乃至美国的边界。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第7期|p.3928-3938|共11页
  • 作者单位

    Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA,Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre, Baptist University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;

    Frontier Associates IXC, 1515 S. Capital of Texas Highway, Suite 110, Austin, TX 78746, USA,The University of Texas at Austin, LBJ School of Public Affairs and Division of Statistics, Austin, TX 78713, USA;

    Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA;

    Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA,Public Utilities Research Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    wind energy; zonal-market price difference; ercot;

    机译:风能区域市场价格差异ercot;

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