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Vehicle technology under CO_2 constraint: a general equilibrium analysis

机译：CO_2约束下的车辆技术：一般均衡分析

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摘要

A study is presented of the rates of penetration of different transport technologies under policy constraints on CO_2 emissions. The response of this sector is analyzed within an overall national level of restriction, with a focus on automobiles, light trucks, and heavy freight trucks. Using the US as an example, a linked set of three models is used to carry out the analysis: a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model of the economy, a MARKAL-type model of vehicle and fuel supply technology, and a model simulating the split of personal and freight transport among modes. Results highlight the importance of incremental improvements in conventional internal combustion engine technology, and, in the absence of policies to overcome observed consumer discount rates, the very long time horizons before radical alternatives like the internal combustion engine hybrid drive train vehicle are likely to take substantial market share.
机译：提出了一项研究，研究了在限制CO_2排放的政策约束下不同运输技术的渗透率。在全国总体限制水平内分析了该部门的反应，重点是汽车，轻型卡车和重型卡车。以美国为例，使用三个模型的链接集进行分析：经济的多部门可计算一般均衡模型，车辆和燃料供应技术的MARKAL型模型以及模拟燃料和燃料供应技术的MARKAL型模型。模式之间的个人和货物运输分离。结果突出表明了对常规内燃机技术进行逐步改进的重要性，并且，由于缺乏克服已观察到的消费者折扣率的政策，在诸如内燃机混合动力传动系统车辆之类的根本性替代方案出现之前，很长一段时间都可能会花费大量时间。市场份额。

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