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Demand-Pull Instruments and the Development of Wind Power in Europe: A Counterfactual Analysis

机译：需求拉动工具与欧洲风电发展：反事实分析

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摘要

Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies have been implemented in order to foster their deployment. The approach that has been privileged in Europe is the demand-pull approach that aims at creating a demand for these new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. This paper examines the effect of demand-pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In a first step, a micro-founded model of diffusion is calibrated in order to replicate the observed diffusion of wind power in these six countries. In a second step, a counterfactual analysis is conducted by investigating several scenarios. By taking into account the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and the learning spillovers that operate in the wind power sector, we can derive several insights about demand-pull policies. First, the impact of a demand-pull policy on the diffusion of wind power is determined by the stage at which it comes to support it. The effect seems to be stronger at the beginning of the diffusion. Second, international spillovers do operate in the wind power sector. These international spillovers however are not strong enough to foster the diffusion of wind power in a country having no demand-pull support. We can derive from these two statements that a strategy consisting in not implementing any demand-pull policy, with the expectation that international spillovers will reduce the cost of wind power and foster the diffusion of the technology that then shall become competitive, is not a good option for a country targeting a high share of wind power in its energy mix.
机译：人们呼吁可再生能源技术在减少温室气体排放中起关键作用。由于大多数这些技术尚未达到电网平价，因此已实施公共政策以促进其部署。在欧洲，特权方法是“需求拉动”方法，其目的是对这些新技术产生需求并促进其扩散。本文研究了需求拉动政策对六个欧洲国家（丹麦，法国，德国，意大利，葡萄牙和西班牙）的陆上风力发电技术传播的影响。第一步，校准微观建立的扩散模型，以便在这六个国家中复制观察到的风能扩散。第二步，通过调查几种情况进行反事实分析。通过考虑复杂的自我维持的扩散动态以及在风电领域运行的学习溢出效应，我们可以得出有关需求拉动政策的一些见解。首先，需求拉动政策对风能扩散的影响取决于其支持阶段。在扩散开始时效果似乎更强。第二，国际溢出效应确实发生在风电领域。然而，这些国际溢出效应不足以促进一个没有需求拉动支持的国家中风电的扩散。从这两个陈述中我们可以得出，一项不实施任何需求拉动政策，并期望国际溢出效应将降低风电成本并促进随后将变得具有竞争力的技术扩散的战略不是一个好办法。一个目标是在其能源结构中以风能占较高份额为目标的国家的选择。

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