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Demand-Pull Instruments and the Development of Wind Power in Europe: A Counterfactual Analysis

机译：需求拉动仪器和欧洲风电的发展：反事实分析

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摘要

Renewable energy technologies are called to play a crucial role in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Since most of these technologies did not yet reach grid parity, public policies have been implemented in order to foster their deployment. The approach that has been privileged in Europe is the demand-pull approach that aims at creating a demand for these new technologies and at stimulating their diffusion. This paper examines the effect of demand-pull policies on the diffusion of onshore wind power technology in six European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In a first step, a micro-founded model of diffusion is calibrated in order to replicate the observed diffusion of wind power in these six countries. In a second step, a counterfactual analysis is conducted by investigating several scenarios. By taking into account the complex self-sustained dynamics of diffusion and the learning spillovers that operate in the wind power sector, we can derive several insights about demand-pull policies. First, the impact of a demand-pull policy on the diffusion of wind power is determined by the stage at which it comes to support it. The effect seems to be stronger at the beginning of the diffusion. Second, international spillovers do operate in the wind power sector. These international spillovers however are not strong enough to foster the diffusion of wind power in a country having no demand-pull support. We can derive from these two statements that a strategy consisting in not implementing any demand-pull policy, with the expectation that international spillovers will reduce the cost of wind power and foster the diffusion of the technology that then shall become competitive, is not a good option for a country targeting a high share of wind power in its energy mix.
机译：可再生能源技术被称为在减少温室气体排放中发挥至关重要的作用。由于大多数技术尚未达到电网平价，因此已实施公共政策以促进其部署。欧洲特权的方法是旨在为这些新技术和刺激扩散的需求来创造需求的需求拉动方法。本文介绍了需求拉政策对六个欧洲国家陆上风电技术扩散的影响：丹麦，法国，德国，意大利，葡萄牙和西班牙。在第一步中，校准微创的扩散模型，以便在这六个国家复制观察到的风力传播。在第二步中，通过调查若干方案进行反事实分析。通过考虑到在风电部门运营的扩散和学习溢出的复杂自持续动态，我们可以派生关于需求拉动政策的几个见解。首先，需求拉动政策对风电扩散的影响是由支持它的阶段确定的。在扩散开始时，效果似乎更强大。其次，国际溢出效应确实在风电场运行。然而，这些国际溢出效应不足以促进一个没有需求拉动支持的国家的风力传播。我们可以从这两个陈述中获得，这是一种策略，包括任何需求拉政策，期望国际溢出率将降低风力的成本并培养该技术的扩散，那么将成为竞争的技术，并不好适用于一个国家在其能量组合中瞄准风力发电的国家。

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