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A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change

机译：气候变化经济学的第三次浪潮

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摘要

Modelling the economics of climate change is daunting. Many existing methodologies from social and physical sciences need to be deployed, and new modelling techniques and ideas still need to be developed. Existing bread-and-butter micro-and macroeconomic tools, such as the expected utility framework, market equilibrium concepts and representative agent assumptions, are far from adequate. Four key issues-along with several others-remain inadequately addressed by economic models of climate change, namely: (1) uncertainty, (2) aggregation, heterogeneity and distributional implications (3) technological change, and most of all, (4) realistic damage functions for the economic impact of the physical consequences of climate change. This paper assesses the main shortcomings of two generations of climate-energy-economic models and proposes that a new wave of models need to be developed to tackle these four challenges. This paper then examines two potential candidate approaches-dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and agent-based models (ABM). The successful use of agent-based models in other areas, such as in modelling the financial system, housing markets and technological progress suggests its potential applicability to better modelling the economics of climate change.
机译：对气候变化的经济学建模是艰巨的。需要部署来自社会科学和物理科学的许多现有方法，并且仍需要开发新的建模技术和思想。现有的生硬的微观和宏观经济工具，例如预期的效用框架，市场均衡概念和代表性的代理商假设，远远不够。气候变化的经济模型仍未充分解决四个关键问题以及其他几个问题，即：（1）不确定性；（2）聚集，异质性和分布影响；（3）技术变革，最重要的是，（4）现实问题损害功能是对气候变化的物理后果的经济影响。本文评估了两代气候-能源-经济模型的主要缺陷，并提出需要开发新的模型来应对这四个挑战。然后，本文研究了两种潜在的候选方法-动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型和基于主体的模型（ABM）。基于代理的模型在其他领域的成功使用，例如在对金融体系，住房市场和技术进步进行建模时，表明其潜在的适用性，可以更好地对气候变化的经济学进行建模。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental & Resource Economics》 |2015年第2期|329-357|共29页
  • 作者

    Farmer J. Doyne; Hepburn Cameron; Mealy Penny; Teytelboym Alexander;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford OX2 6ED, England|Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA|Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford OX2 6GG, England;

    Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford OX2 6ED, England|Univ Oxford, Smith Sch Enterprise & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England|Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst, London WC2A 2AZ, England;

    Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford OX2 6ED, England|Univ Oxford, Smith Sch Enterprise & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England;

    Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford OX2 6ED, England|Univ Oxford, Smith Sch Enterprise & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Climate change; Integrated assessment models; Agent based models; DSGE models; Uncertainty; Technological innovation; Heterogeneity; Damage function;

    机译：气候变化;综合评估模型;基于Agent的模型;DSGE模型;不确定性;技术创新;非均质性;损伤函数;

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