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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices
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Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices

机译：农业和土地利用变化带来的温室气体排放缓解战略：粮食价格的后果

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摘要

The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic modelj we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.
机译：农业，林业和其他土地利用的土地利用部门（AFOLU）在雄心勃勃的减缓气候变化工作中发挥着核心作用。但是，农业方面的缓解政策可能与与粮食安全有关的目标相抵触。我们使用全球农业经济模型分析了减缓政策对粮食价格的影响，减缓政策的目标是通过税收激励生产者或通过消费者偏好（例如通过教育计划）。尽管在2100年减排潜力类似，为43-44％，但两种政策手段却导致食品价格的相反结果。以激励为基础的缓解措施，例如保护富含碳的森林或采用低排放的生产技术，会增加土地稀缺性和生产成本，从而增加食品价格。基于偏好的缓解措施，例如减少家庭废物或降低动物产品的消费量，减少土地稀缺性，防止排放泄漏，并将生产集中在最有生产力的地点，从而降低食品价格。这些缓解措施的结合进一步减少了农业排放，但战略的协同作用未能大幅降低粮食价格。此外，我们证明了在一系列温室气体（GHG）税率范围内，农业减排的效率是稳定的，而由此产生的食品价格却表现出不成比例的更大利差。

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  • 来源
    《Environmental Science & Technology》 |2017年第1期|365-374|共10页
  • 作者

    Miodrag Stevanović; Alexander Popp; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Florian Humpenöder; Christoρh Müller; Isabelle Weindl; Jan Philipp Dietrich; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Ulrich Kreidenweis; Susanne Rolinsld; Anne Biewald; Xiaoxi Wang;

  • 作者单位

    Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany ,Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), Berlin, D-10623, Germany;

    Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), Berlin, D-10623, Germany ,Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany ,technology Assessment and Substance Cycles, Leibniz Institute for Aricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Potsdam, D-14469, Germany;

    Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany ,Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin), Berlin, D-10099, Germany;

    Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany ,Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin), Berlin, D-10623, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany;

    Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, D-14412, Germany ,Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin), Berlin, D-10099, Germany;

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