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Influence Of Climate And Human Activities On The Relationship Between Watershed Nitrogen Input And River Export

机译：气候和人类活动对流域氮输入与河流出口之间关系的影响

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摘要

River export of nitrogen (N) is influenced strongly by spatial variation in anthropogenic N inputs and climatic variation. We developed a model of riverine N export for 18 Lake Michigan Basin watersheds based on N budgets at 5-year intervals from 1974 to 1992. N inputs explained a high proportion of the spatial variation in river export but virtually none of the temporal variation, whereas between year N export was related to variation in discharge for over one-half of the rivers. A regression model of riverine N exports as an exponential function of N inputs and a powerfunction of annual water discharge accounted for 87% of the variation in annual total nitrogen fluxes over space and time. Application of this model to three scenarios of future land use, including business as usual, greater reliance on organic farming methods, and expanded corn-based ethanol production, and two climate scenarios, including increases in water discharge by 5% and 10%, suggests that riverine N export is likely to increase by as much as 24% in response to heavier fertilizer use for expanded com production and a 10% increase in annual discharge. However, N export by rivers could decrease below present-day export through reduced reliance on commercial fertilizer use.
机译：河流中氮的出口受人为氮输入的空间变化和气候变化的强烈影响。我们根据1974年至1992年每隔5年的N个预算，为密歇根湖流域18个流域开发了河流N排放模型。N投入解释了河流出口空间变化的很大一部分，但几乎没有时间变化，而N年之间的出口与一半以上河流的流量变化有关。河流氮出口作为氮输入的指数函数和年排水量的幂函数的回归模型占年总氮通量随时间和空间变化的87％。建议将此模型应用于未来土地使用的三种情况，包括照常营业，更多地依赖有机耕作方法以及扩大玉米基乙醇生产，以及两种气候情况，包括将排水量增加5％和10％河流氮的出口可能会增加多达24％，这是由于扩大化肥生产所使用的化肥用量增加以及年排放量增加了10％。但是，通过减少对商业化肥的使用，河流的氮出口可能会减少到目前的出口以下。

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