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首页> 外文期刊>Environmental Science & Technology >Geostatistical Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Soil Dioxin in the Vicinity of an Incinerator. 2. Verification and Calibration Study
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Geostatistical Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Soil Dioxin in the Vicinity of an Incinerator. 2. Verification and Calibration Study

机译：焚化炉附近土壤二恶英空间分布的地统计学模型。 2.验证和校准研究

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摘要

A key component in any investigation of cause-effect relationships between point source pollution, such as an incinerator, and human health is the availability of measurements and/or accurate models of exposure at the same scale or geography as the health data. Geostatistics allows one to simulate the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations over various spatial supports while incorporating both field data and predictions of deterministic dispersion models. This methodology was used in a companion paper to identify the census blocks that have a high probability of exceeding a given level of dioxin TEQ (toxic equivalents) around an incinerator in Midland, Ml. This geostatistical model, along with population data, provided guidance for the collection of 51 new soil data, which permits the verification of the geostatistical predictions, and calibration of the model. Each new soil measurement was compared to the set of 100 TEQ values simulated at the closest grid node. The correlation between the measured concentration and the averaged simulated value is moderate (0.44), and the actual concentrations are clearly overestimated in the vicinity of the plant property line. Nevertheless, probability intervals computed from simulated TEQ values provide an accurate model of uncertainty: the proportion of observations that fall within these intervals exceeds what is expected from the model. Simulation-based probability intervals are also narrower than the intervals derived from the global histogram of the data, which demonstrates the greater precision of the geostatistical approach. Log-normal ordinary kriging provided fairly similar estimation results for the small and well-sampled area used in this validation study; however, the model of uncertainty was not always accurate. The regression analysis and geostatistical simulation were then conducted using the combined set of 53 original and 51 new soil samples, leading to an updated model for the spatial distribution of TEQ in Midland, Ml.
机译：任何对点源污染（如焚化炉）与人类健康之间因果关系的调查的关键组成部分都是与健康数据相同规模或地理范围的测量和/或精确暴露模型的可用性。地统计学可以模拟污染物浓度在各种空间支撑上的空间分布，同时结合现场数据和确定性色散模型的预测。该方法在伴侣论文中用于确定人口普查区域，该人口普查区域很可能超过密歇根州米德兰市焚化炉周围特定水平的二恶英TEQ（毒性当量）。该地统计学模型与人口数据一起，为收集51种新的土壤数据提供了指导，从而可以验证地统计学预测和对模型进行校准。将每个新的土壤测量值与最近的网格节点处模拟的100个TEQ值集进行比较。实测浓度与平均模拟值之间的相关性为中等（0.44），在植物特性线附近，实际浓度明显被高估了。然而，从模拟的TEQ值计算出的概率区间提供了准确的不确定性模型：落入这些区间的观测比例超出了模型的预期范围。基于仿真的概率间隔也比从数据的整体直方图得出的间隔窄，这表明地统计方法的精度更高。对数正态普通克里金法对本验证研究中使用的较小且采样良好的区域提供了相当相似的估计结果；但是，不确定性模型并不总是准确的。然后使用53个原始土壤样本和51个新土壤样本的组合集进行了回归分析和地统计学模拟，从而得出了密西根州米德兰市TEQ空间分布的更新模型。

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