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Whole truths vs. half truths - And a search for clarity in long-term water temperature records

机译：全部事实与一半事实-并在长期水温记录中寻求明确性

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There is widespread acceptance among the scientific community that human activities are the primary cause of present day climate change. But, how a changing climate impacts ecosystems is still a source of confusion to the public. Some of this confusion is associated with a lack of clear communication among journalists and scientists, particularly when it comes to addressing variability and uncertainty in ecological datasets. Here we use long-term surface water temperature data sets from Narragansett Bay and a recent misunderstanding of long-term temperature data that occurred on the national stage as a case study. Specifically, we re-evaluate and update the record and examine the variability inherent in long-term data sets. We found that despite high year to year variations the surface waters of Narragansett Bay have increased between 1.4 degrees C to 1.6 degrees C total rise over the last fifty years. Winter warming has been especially high over this time period, increasing between 1.6 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Finally, we identify the need for scientists, politicians, and journalists to appropriately address data variability and we argue for increased communication among these groups. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：科学界已广泛接受人类活动是当今气候变化的主要原因。但是，不断变化的气候如何影响生态系统仍然使公众感到困惑。其中一些困惑与记者和科学家之间缺乏清晰的沟通有关，尤其是在解决生态数据集的可变性和不确定性时。在这里，我们使用纳拉甘西特湾的长期地表水温度数据集和最近对全国范围内发生的长期温度数据的误解作为案例研究。具体来说，我们将重新评估和更新记录，并检查长期数据集内在的可变性。我们发现，尽管每年变化很大，但在过去的50年中，Narragansett湾的地表水增加了1.4摄氏度至1.6摄氏度。在此期间，冬季变暖特别高，介于1.6摄氏度到2.0摄氏度之间。最后，我们确定科学家，政治家和新闻工作者需要适当解决数据可变性，并主张增加这些群体之间的交流。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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