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The Politics of Uncertainty and the Fate of Forecasters

机译：不确定政治与预测者的命运

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Using ethnographic data from rural Northeast Brazil, this article explores, firstly, how climate uncertainties are interconnected to processes of accountability and blame, and. secondly, how this connection affects the activity of climate forecasting. By framing climate events in ways that downplay the inherent uncertainties of the atmosphere, political discourses on various scales, as well as religious narratives, create a propitious context for the enactment of what I call accountability rituals. Forecasters seem to attract to themselves a great deal of the collective anxieties related to climate, and are very often blamed for the negative impact of climate events. This blaming may take place in a variety of ways, and has a range of practical results: from real physical violence to attacks on the authority and legitimacy of forecasters, by way of ridicule and jokes. I conclude by suggesting that, on the one hand, the study of the social uses of climate-related uncertainties offers special opportunities for understanding how human societies deal with uncertainty and blame; and that, on the other hand, a better understanding of these issues is necessary to improve relations between climate forecasting and the societies where it takes place - the latter being a key issue in the processes of understanding and adapting to climate change.
机译：本文使用来自巴西东北部农村的人种学数据，首先探讨了气候不确定性如何与责任和责任感相互联系，以及。其次，这种联系如何影响气候预报活动。通过以淡化大气层固有不确定性的方式来组织气候事件，各种规模的政治论述以及宗教叙事为实施我称之为问责制的仪式创造了有利的环境。预报员似乎吸引了很多与气候有关的集体焦虑，并且常常被指责为气候事件的负面影响。这种指责可能以多种方式发生，并产生一系列实际结果：从真实的人身暴力到通过嘲笑和笑话对预报员的权威和合法性的攻击。最后，我建议，一方面，对与气候有关的不确定性的社会用途进行研究，为了解人类社会如何处理不确定性和怪罪提供了特殊的机会。另一方面，必须更好地理解这些问题，以改善气候预测与发生气候变化的社会之间的关系，后者是理解和适应气候变化过程中的关键问题。

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  • 来源
    《Ethics, policy and environment》 |2012年第2期|p.252-267|共16页
  • 作者

    RENZO TADDEI;

  • 作者单位

    School of Communication, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Av.Pasteur, 250. Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22290-902, Brazil;

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