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The forecasting ability of Internet-based virtual futures market

机译：基于互联网的虚拟期货市场的预测能力

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摘要

Internet-based virtual futures markets (VFMs) have been used in predicting election results and movie ticket sales. We construct an Internet-based VFM to predict an underlying stock price. While the virtual futures market has received much attention, questions remain as to the ideal number of participants. Results of Granger causality tests and analysis of directional accuracy show that a VFM with only a small number of participants (75) is able to generate informative futures prices useful in the prediction of the underlying stock price. Moreover, the participants were not professional investors but merely undergraduate finance students with only a cursory introduction to futures trading. Our results provide additional evidence supporting the use of VFMs in forecasting and show that VFMs are powerful forecasting tools.
机译：基于Internet的虚拟期货市场（VFM）已用于预测选举结果和电影票销售。我们构建一个基于Internet的VFM来预测基本股价。尽管虚拟期货市场受到了很多关注，但对于理想的参与者数量仍然存在疑问。 Granger因果关系测试的结果和方向准确性的分析表明，只有少数参与者的VFM（75）能够生成有用的期货价格，该价格可用于基础股票价格的预测。而且，参与者不是专业投资者，而只是本科金融专业的学生，​​只粗略地介绍了期货交易。我们的结果提供了支持在预测中使用VFM的其他证据，并表明VFM是强大的预测工具。

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  • 来源
    《Expert systems with applications》 |2009年第10期|12578-12584|共7页
  • 作者

    An-Sing Chen; Jyun-Cheng Wang; Shu-Ching Yang; David C. Yen;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Finance, National Chung-Cheng University, Chia-yi 621, Taiwan, ROC;

    Institute of Technology Management, National Tsing-Hua University, 300, Taiwan, ROC;

    Graduate Institute of Education, National Sun Yat Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, ROC;

    Jennifer J. Petters Chair in Asian Business, Department of Decision Sciences and Management Information Systems, Miami University, 305A Upham Hall, Oxford, OH 45056, United States;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    virtual futures market; virtual markets; forecasting;

    机译：虚拟期货市场;虚拟市场;预测;

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