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首页> 外文期刊>Food microbiology >Stochastic modeling of variability in survival behavior of Bacillus simplex spore population during isothermal inactivation at the single cell level using a Monte Carlo simulation
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Stochastic modeling of variability in survival behavior of Bacillus simplex spore population during isothermal inactivation at the single cell level using a Monte Carlo simulation

机译：蒙特卡洛模拟在单细胞水平等温灭活过程中单纯芽孢杆菌孢子种群存活行为变异性的随机模型

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摘要

The control of bacterial reduction is important to maintain food safety during thermal processing. The goal of this study was to illustrate and describe variability in bacterial population behavior during thermal processing as a probability distribution based on individual cell heterogeneity regarding heat resistance. Toward this end, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation via computer, and compared and validated the simulated estimations with observed values. Weibullian fitted parameters were estimated from the kinetic survival data of Bacillus simplex during thermal treatment at 94 degrees C. The variability in reductions of bacterial sporular populations was illustrated using Monte Carlo simulation based on the Weibull distribution of the parameters. In particular, variabilities in viable spore counts and survival probability of the B. simplex spore population were simulated in various replicates. We also experimentally determined the changes in survival probability and distributions of survival spore counts; notably, these were successfully predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the kinetic parameters. The kinetic parameter-based Monte Carlo simulation could thus successfully illustrate bacterial population behavior variability during thermal processing as a probability distribution. The simulation approach may contribute to improving food quality through risk- based processing designs and enhance risk assessment model accuracy.
机译：控制细菌的减少对于在热处理过程中保持食品安全很重要。这项研究的目的是说明和描述热加工过程中细菌种群行为的变异性，将其作为基于关于耐热性的单个细胞异质性的概率分布。为此，我们通过计算机执行了蒙特卡洛模拟，并与观察值进行了比较和验证。从94℃热处理期间单纯芽孢杆菌的动力学存活数据估计Weibullian拟合参数。基于参数的Weibull分布，使用Monte Carlo模拟说明细菌孢子种群减少的变化性。尤其是，在各种重复中模拟了单纯芽孢杆菌孢子种群的活孢子计数变异和存活概率。我们还通过实验确定了存活概率的变化和存活孢子数的分布。值得注意的是，这些是通过基于动力学参数的蒙特卡洛模拟成功预测的。因此，基于动力学参数的蒙特卡洛模拟可以成功地将热处理过程中细菌种群行为的变异性说明为概率分布。模拟方法可通过基于风险的加工设计来改善食品质量，并提高风险评估模型的准确性。

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