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首页> 外文期刊>Food microbiology >Stochastic modeling of variability in survival behavior of Bacillus simplex spore population during isothermal inactivation at the single cell level using a Monte Carlo simulation
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Stochastic modeling of variability in survival behavior of Bacillus simplex spore population during isothermal inactivation at the single cell level using a Monte Carlo simulation

机译：使用蒙特卡罗模拟在单细胞水平等温灭活期间芽孢杆菌单纯孢子群生存行为变异性的随机造型

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摘要

The control of bacterial reduction is important to maintain food safety during thermal processing. The goal of this study was to illustrate and describe variability in bacterial population behavior during thermal processing as a probability distribution based on individual cell heterogeneity regarding heat resistance. Toward this end, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation via computer, and compared and validated the simulated estimations with observed values. Weibullian fitted parameters were estimated from the kinetic survival data of Bacillus simplex during thermal treatment at 94 degrees C. The variability in reductions of bacterial sporular populations was illustrated using Monte Carlo simulation based on the Weibull distribution of the parameters. In particular, variabilities in viable spore counts and survival probability of the B. simplex spore population were simulated in various replicates. We also experimentally determined the changes in survival probability and distributions of survival spore counts; notably, these were successfully predicted by the Monte Carlo simulation based on the kinetic parameters. The kinetic parameter-based Monte Carlo simulation could thus successfully illustrate bacterial population behavior variability during thermal processing as a probability distribution. The simulation approach may contribute to improving food quality through risk- based processing designs and enhance risk assessment model accuracy.
机译：细菌还原的控制对于在热处理期间保持食物安全性是重要的。本研究的目标是在热处理期间说明和描述细菌群体行为的可变性，作为基于关于耐热性的个体细胞异质性的概率分布。朝向此结束，我们通过计算机进行了蒙特卡罗模拟，并进行了比较并验证了观察值的模拟估计。从94摄氏度的热处理期间，从芽孢杆菌单位的动力学存活数据估算了威伯里安拟合参数。使用基于参数的Weibull分布的蒙特卡罗模拟说明了细菌育雏群的减少的变化。特别地，在各种重复中模拟了B.Pirfyx孢子群的可行孢子计数和生存概率的变形性。我们还通过实验确定生存概率和生存孢子数分布的变化;值得注意的是，基于动力学参数，通过蒙特卡罗模拟成功预测这些。因此，基于动力学参数的蒙特卡罗模拟可以在热处理中成功地说明细菌群体行为可变性作为概率分布。通过基于风险的处理设计和提高风险评估模型准确性，模拟方法可能有助于提高食品质量。

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