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Modeling the risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios produced and consumed in the United States

机译：对在美国生产和消费的开心果进食沙门氏菌的风险进行建模

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摘要

The risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios produced and consumed in the U.S. was assessed through quantitative microbial risk assessment. Data on Salmonella prevalence and concentration on pistachios, nut crop volume, storage times and temperatures during processing and handling, and reductions during storage or from roasting were derived from laboratory experiments, published literature, and industry expert opinion. Uncertainty was analyzed via what-if scenarios for Salmonella prevalence, concentration, storage reduction, treatment variability, portion of crop treated, and increased consumption. The estimated U.S. incidence of salmonellosis when 100% of pistachios were exposed to a 4 ± 0 log reduction treatment averaged 1.4 cases per billion servings, or <1 case/year, without considering Salmonella decline during storage. Including Salmonella decline during storage reduced the salmonellosis estimates approximately 10-fold. The predicted arithmetic mean number of cases associated with individual 500,000-kg storage silos, contaminated at the highest observed levels, ranged from 5 to 530 when the product was consumed untreated, but was reduced to below 1 case per silo when a 4 ± 0 log reduction treatment was applied. Assuming a uniform 4-log reduction treatment is applied to 100% of the crop and there is no decline of Salmonella during storage, the assessment indicates the following: 10-fold increases in either Salmonella prevalence or concentration, 2-fold increases in both prevalence and concentration, or consumption of >0.053S of untreated product volume yield an arithmetic mean risk of >1 case/year.
机译：通过定量微生物风险评估来评估在美国生产和消费的开心果的消费所致沙门氏菌病的风险。沙门氏菌在开心果中的流行度和浓度，坚果产量，加工和处理过程中的储存时间和温度以及储存或烘烤过程中的减少量的数据来自实验室实验，已发表的文献和行业专家的意见。通过假设情景下的沙门氏菌患病率，浓度，储藏量减少，处理变异性，所处理农作物的比例和增加的消费量对不确定性进行了分析。在不考虑沙门氏菌在储存过程中下降的情况下，将100％的开心果暴露于4±0 log减毒处理后，美国沙门氏菌病的估计发病率平均为每十亿份食物中有1.4例，或<1例/年。包括沙门氏菌在储存过程中的下降在内，沙门氏菌病估计减少了约10倍。与单个500,000公斤存储仓相关的预测算术平均病例数，在最高观测水平下受污染，当未经处理而消耗产品时，范围为5到530，但当4±0 log时，每个仓则减少到1例以下进行还原处理。假设对100％的作物采用统一的4-log减量处理，并且在存储过程中沙门氏菌没有下降，则评估表明：沙门氏菌患病率或浓度增加10倍，沙门氏菌患病率增加2倍浓度，浓度或消耗的未处理产品量> 0.053S，算术平均风险> 1例/年。

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  • 来源
    《Food microbiology》 |2017年第10期|85-96|共12页
  • 作者

    Elisabetta Lambertini; Javad Barouei; Donald W. Schaffner; Michelle D. Danyluk; Linda J. Harris;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Food Science and Technology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Food Science and Technology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

    Department of Food Science, Rutgers University, 65 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8520, USA;

    Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, Citrus Research and Education Center, University of Florida, 700 Experiment Station Road, Lake Alfred, Florida 33850, USA;

    Department of Food Science and Technology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA,Western Center for Food Safety, University of California, Davis, 279 Cousteau Place, Suite 100, Davis, CA 95616, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Salmonella; Risk assessment; Tree nut; Postharvest processing;

    机译：沙门氏菌;风险评估;树坚果;采后处理;

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