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Comparison of individual-based modeling and population approaches for prediction of foodborne pathogens growth

机译：基于个体的建模和种群方法对食源性病原体生长预测的比较

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摘要

Individual-based modeling (IBM) approach combined with the microenvironment modeling of vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon was more effective to describe the variability of the growth of a few Listeria monocytogenes cells contaminating irradiated salmon slices than the traditional population models. The IBM approach was particularly relevant to predict the absence of growth in 25% (5 among 20) of artificially contaminated cold-smoked salmon samples stored at 8 ℃. These results confirmed similar observations obtained with smear soft cheese (Ferrier et al., 2013). These two different food models were used to compare the IBM/microscale and population/macroscale modeling approaches in more global exposure and risk assessment frameworks taking into account the variability and/or the uncertainty of the factors influencing the growth of L monocytogenes. We observed that the traditional population models significantly overestimate exposure and risk estimates in comparison to IBM approach when contamination of foods occurs with a low number of cells (＜100 per serving). Moreover, the exposure estimates obtained with the population model were characterized by a great uncertainty. The over-estimation was mainly linked to the ability of IBM to predict no growth situations rather than the consideration of microscale environment. On the other hand, when the aim of quantitative risk assessment studies is only to assess the relative impact of changes in control measures affecting the growth of foodborne bacteria, the two modeling approach gave similar results and the simplest population approach was suitable.
机译：基于个体的建模（IBM）方法与真空包装的冷熏鲑鱼的微环境建模相结合，比传统的种群模型更有效地描述了污染辐照鲑鱼片的少数李斯特菌单核细胞增生李斯特菌细胞的生长变异性。 IBM方法与预测在8℃储存的人工污染的冷熏鲑鱼样品中25％（20个中的5个）不存在增长特别相关。这些结果证实了涂抹软奶酪获得的类似观察结果（Ferrier等，2013）。考虑到影响单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌生长的因素的可变性和/或不确定性，使用这两种不同的食物模型在更全面的暴露和风险评估框架中比较IBM /微观模型和人口/宏观模型方法。我们观察到，当食物污染少且细胞数量少（每份＜100）时，与IBM方法相比，传统的人口模型大大高估了暴露和风险估计。此外，通过人口模型获得的暴露估计具有很大的不确定性。高估主要与IBM预测无增长情况的能力有关，而不是与微观环境的考虑有关。另一方面，当定量风险评估研究的目的只是评估影响食源性细菌生长的控制措施变化的相对影响时，两种建模方法得出的结果相似，而最简单的种群方法是合适的。

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  • 来源
    《Food microbiology》 |2015年第febaptab期|205-215|共11页
  • 作者

    Jean-Christophe Augustin; Rachel Ferrier; Bernard Hezard; Adrienne Lintz; Valerie Stahl;

  • 作者单位

    Universite Paris-Est, Ecole Nationale Veterinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort F-94704, France;

    Universite Paris-Est, Ecole Nationale Veterinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort F-94704, France,Aerial, Institut technique agro-industriel, Parc d'Innovation, 250 rue Laurent Fries, Illkirch F-67412, France;

    Aerial, Institut technique agro-industriel, Parc d'Innovation, 250 rue Laurent Fries, Illkirch F-67412, France;

    Aerial, Institut technique agro-industriel, Parc d'Innovation, 250 rue Laurent Fries, Illkirch F-67412, France;

    Aerial, Institut technique agro-industriel, Parc d'Innovation, 250 rue Laurent Fries, Illkirch F-67412, France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Listeria monocytogenes; Cold-smoked salmon; Individual-based modeling; Quantitative risk assessment;

    机译：李斯特菌;冷熏三文鱼;基于个人的建模;定量风险评估;

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