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Facing disaster: the great challenges framework

机译：面对灾难：巨大的挑战框架

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Purpose - This paper provides a detailed survey of the greatest dangers facing humanity this century. It argues that there are three broad classes of risks - the "Great Challenges"- that deserve our immediate attention, namely, environmental degradation, which includes climate change and global biodiversity loss; the distribution of unprecedented destructive capabilities across society by dual-use emerging technologies; and value-misaligned algorithms that exceed human-level intelligence in every cognitive domain. After examining each of these challenges, the paper then outlines a handful of additional issues that are relevant to understanding our existential predicament and could complicate attempts to overcome the Great Challenges. The central aim of this paper is to constitute an authoritative resource, insofar as this is possible in a scholarly journal, for scholars who are working on or interested in existential risks. In the author's view, this is precisely the sort of big-picture analysis that humanity needs more of, if we wish to navigate the obstacle course of existential dangers before us. Design/methodology/approach - Comprehensive literature survey that culminates in a novel theoretical framework for thinking about global-scale risks. Findings - If humanity wishes to survive and prosper in the coming centuries, then we must overcome three Great Challenges, each of which is sufficient to cause a significant loss of expected value in the future. Originality/value - The Great Challenges framework offers a novel scheme that highlights the most pressing global-scale risks to human survival and prosperity. The author argues that the "big-picture" approach of this paper exemplifies the sort of scholarship that humanity needs more of to properly understand the various existential hazards that are unique to the twenty-first century.
机译：目的-本文提供了本世纪人类面临的最大危险的详细调查。它认为，存在三大类风险-“巨大挑战”，值得我们立即注意，即环境退化，其中包括气候变化和全球生物多样性丧失；双重用途的新兴技术在整个社会中传播了前所未有的破坏力；和价值错位的算法，在每个认知领域中都超过了人类的智能。在研究了每一个挑战之后，本文概述了一些其他的问题，这些问题与理解我们的生存困境有关，并且可能使克服巨大挑战的尝试变得复杂。本文的主要目的是，为正在从事研究或对存在风险感兴趣的学者提供一种权威资源，只要这在学术期刊中是可能的。在作者看来，如果我们希望克服摆在我们面前的存在性危险的障碍路线，这恰恰是人类更需要的大图分析。设计/方法/方法-综合文献调查，最终形成了思考全球规模风险的新颖理论框架。调查结果-如果人类希望在未来的几个世纪中生存和繁荣，那么我们必须克服三个重大挑战，每一个挑战都足以在未来造成预期价值的重大损失。原创性/价值-大挑战框架提供了一种新颖的方案，突出了人类生存和繁荣面临的最紧迫的全球风险。作者认为，本文的“大局观”方法例证了人类需要更多的知识才能正确地理解二十一世纪独特的各种生存危险。

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