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The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review

机译：不确定性情景在减少灾害风险中的使用：系统回顾

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Purpose - In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach - This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included "disaster," "emergency," "crisis," "disruptive event," "futures study," "foresight," "scenario," "community-based scenario planning," "participatory scenario planning," "scenario planning" and "scenario analysis." The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings - A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value - The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.
机译：目的-近年来，使用期货研究方法（尤其是情景分析）来计划灾难和应急管理。方案方法适用于公共级别的决策。场景在诸如灾害研究之类的所有发展领域中产生了替代性的描述性未来。本文旨在系统地回顾在灾难管理中产生场景的文章，以获取与在灾难中使用场景分析相关的差距，挑战和机会。设计/方法/方法-这是基于系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目（PRISMA）指南进行的系统评价。搜索的关键字包括“灾难”，“紧急情况”，“危机”，“破坏性事件”，“未来研究”，“展望”，“情景”搜索了“基于社区的方案计划”，“参与式方案计划”，“方案计划”和“方案分析”。搜索了Google学术搜索，ISI Web of Science，Science Direct，PubMed和Scopus数据库。发现-在电子数据库之间进行初步搜索后，总共收集了981条文章。在最后一步，该研究仅包含十篇文章。所选文章根据许多方面进行了比较。灾害管理和规划中制定的大多数方案都集中在气候变化和与洪水有关的灾害上。许多研究提出了三种或四种方案，这些方案似乎适合进行灾难规划。原创性/价值-本文是灾难规划的原始指南。

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