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Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

机译：在2035年保持竞争力：基于场景的方法，用于设计和制造业的前视

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摘要

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach - The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings - Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value - The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.
机译：目的 - 本文的目的是使用基于场景规划的集成远见方法设想设计和制造业的替代期货。此外，作者旨在为2035年作为领先的高科技国际设计和制造公司举办的企业制定强大的策略。设计/方法论/方法 - 建议的方法是通过整合多个远见方法如Delphi来创建。 ，情景规划，MicMac和交叉影响分析。调查结果 - 在设计和制造业的基本驱动力中发现了自动化和可持续发展。创建了基于这些驱动力和专业知识的四种情景：创新适应，强制自动化（常规），可持续时代和自动化方案。对于发达的方案，通过向专家提出关于使企业在2035年所有发达的情景中的企业竞争的战略的专家提出了一系列策略。主要的宏观级结果是经济和技术司机将是最重要的设计和制造的因素，其次是环境和社会因素。原创性/值 - 所提出的方法利用传统情景规划的优势，但是通过表明情景建设和易于应用的系统过程来克服其弱点。

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