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Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies

机译：基于分布的标度，以提高用于水文气候变化影响研究的区域气候模型预测的可用性

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摘要

As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations, statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961-2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.
机译：由于气候变化可能会对水文学和相应的水管理产生重大影响，因此应使用适当的气候变化投入来评估未来的影响。尽管区域气候模型（RCM）的性能随着时间的推移有所提高，但是系统模型偏差仍然限制了RCM输出直接用于水文影响研究。为了解决这个问题，开发了一种基于分布的比例缩放（DBS）方法，该方法可以调整RCM的降水和温度以更好地反映观测结果，大大改善了统计属性，例如日均值，标准差，降水天数的分布和频率，以进行控制周期与直接RCM输出相比。来自两个IPCC排放情景特别报告（SRESA1B）的DBS调整后的降水和温度被用作1961-2100年瑞典几个流域HBV水文模型的输入。将使用DBS的水文结果与使用广泛的三角洲变化（DC）方法进行影响研究的结果进行了比较。使用这两种方法均获得了气候变暖和潮湿的一般信号，但是使用DBS可以确定DC所没有看到的两个预测之间的差异。 DBS方法被认为可以更好地保留RCM所产生的未来可变性，从而提高气候变化影响研究的可用性。

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  • 来源
    《Hydrology research》 |2010年第4期|P.211-229|共19页
  • 作者

    Wei Yang; Johan Andreasson; L. Phil Graham; Jonas Olsson; Joergen Rosberg; Fredrik Wetterhall;

  • 作者单位

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,SE-60176, Norrkoping,Sweden;

    rnSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,SE-60176, Norrkoping,Sweden;

    rnSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,SE-60176, Norrkoping,Sweden;

    rnSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,SE-60176, Norrkoping,Sweden;

    rnSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,SE-60176, Norrkoping,Sweden;

    rnDepartment of Geography,King's College London,Strand, London,UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate change; downscaling; hydrological impacts;

    机译：气候变化;缩小规模;水文影响;

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