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Modelling the effects of changing climate and nitrogen deposition on nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain catchment

机译：模拟气候变化和氮沉降对苏格兰山区流域硝酸盐动态的影响

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摘要

The effect of changing climate and N deposition on montane ecosystems is a topic of considerable importance. Mountains are vulnerable environments and their ecosystems are often in a delicate balance. An application of the INCA-N model is presented to simulate current-day nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain lake and to project the possible future effects of climate change and reductions in N deposition on lake nitrate concentration ([NO_3~- ]). The INCA-N model is calibrated using data from 1996-2006 in an attempt to determine the controls on [NO_3~- ] in Lochnagar and process sensitivities to changing climate. Predictions were sensitive to hydrologic, vegetation-related and in-soil processes. Over the longer term, surface water [NO_3~- ] in this mountain ecosystem is expected to increase. From 2020 to 2100, when N deposition is modelled at a constant rate, warmer temperature exerts a stronger effect on N losses to the lake surface than the N deposition. While the effects of a warming climate are projected to lead to increased surface water [NO_3~- ], concentrations are not projected to either return to, or exceed, historical levels.
机译：气候变化和氮沉降对山地生态系统的影响是一个非常重要的话题。山区是脆弱的环境，其生态系统通常处于微妙的平衡。提出了INCA-N模型的应用，以模拟苏格兰山区湖泊中当前的硝酸盐动态，并预测气候变化和氮沉降减少对硝酸盐浓度（[NO_3〜-]）的未来可能影响。使用1996-2006年的数据对INCA-N模型进行了校准，以试图确定Lochnagar中[NO_3〜-]的控制以及过程对气候变化的敏感性。预测对水文，植被相关和土壤过程敏感。从长远来看，这个山区生态系统的地表水[NO_3〜-]有望增加。从2020年到2100年，当以恒定速率模拟N沉积时，较之N沉积，温度升高对湖面N损失的影响更大。虽然预计气候变暖会导致地表水[NO_3〜-]增加，但预计浓度不会恢复或超过历史水平。

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