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首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology Research >Voyage without constellation: evaluating the performance of three uncalibrated process-oriented models
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Voyage without constellation: evaluating the performance of three uncalibrated process-oriented models

机译：无星座航行：评估三个未经校准的面向过程模型的性能

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Three process-oriented dynamic acidification models were applied to a long-term monitoring sitenwithout calibration to evaluate the influence of model structural differences on simulation. Thenmodels were simplified to share as many commonalities as possible so that the main structuralndifferences could be investigated. The models differed in sub-models for cation exchange, organicnacids and acid anion speciation. All models were populated with ‘equivalent’ parameters bynsystematic input mapping. The influence of input variability was addressed through Monte Carlonparameter sampling. The three models behaved exactly the same for tracers (e.g. sulphate andnchloride), indicating successful cross-parameterization of the models. Differences in modelnstructure had an impact on some of the simulated chemical parameters. In particular, modelsnusing Gapon cation exchange simulated higher base saturation levels in the long run than theirnGaines-Thomas counterparts, but simulated lower base cation concentration and acid neutralizingncapacity in soil solution when acid deposition levels were high. Multiple-model evaluationnframeworks as presented here allow for greater certainty in model predictions; ultimately, thisntype of framework should be employed when evaluating the impacts of future climate andnenvironmental changes on soil and surface water hydrogeochemistry.
机译：在不进行校准的情况下，将三个面向过程的动态酸化模型应用于长期监测站点，以评估模型结构差异对仿真的影响。然后将模型简化为共享尽可能多的共性，以便可以研究主要的结构差异。这些模型在阳离子交换，有机酸和酸阴离子形成的子模型方面有所不同。通过系统的输入映射，所有模型均填充有“等效”参数。输入变异性的影响通过蒙特卡洛参数采样得以解决。对于示踪剂，这三个模型的行为完全相同（例如，硫酸盐和氯化物），表明模型的成功交叉参数化。模型结构的差异对某些模拟的化学参数有影响。特别地，使用Gapon阳离子交换的模型从长远来看比其Gaines-Thomas对应物具有更高的碱饱和度，但是当酸沉积水平高时，可以模拟较低的阳离子浓度和土壤溶液中的酸中和能力。此处介绍的多模型评估框架可提高模型预测的确定性；最终，在评估未来气候和环境变化对土壤和地表水水文地球化学的影响时，应采用这种框架。

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