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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >The benefits and risks of incorporating climate-driven growth variation into stock assessment models, with application to Splitnose Rockfish (Sebastes diploproa)
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The benefits and risks of incorporating climate-driven growth variation into stock assessment models, with application to Splitnose Rockfish (Sebastes diploproa)

机译：将气候驱动的增长变化纳入种群评估模型的益处和风险，并应用于裂鼻石鱼（Sebastes diploproa）

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摘要

Indices of annual growth variation are not routinely incorporated into fisheries stock assessment models, due to a lack of a general framework for deciding when to include these indices, and of a mechanistic understanding about growth drivers. Such incorporation may also not necessarily lead to improved estimation or management performance. We demonstrate a way to incorporate such an index into an assessment model (Stock Synthesis), and use risk analysis to evaluate its management-related advantages and shortcomings. We applied this method to splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa), where a previously developed growth index is highly correlated with decadal-scale climate indices. We find that including a similar index in the simulated assessment increases precision and reduces bias of parameter estimates. However, not including an index or including a completely erroneous index led to highly imprecise estimates when growth was strongly climate-driven. Including this growth index when individual growth was actually constant did not lead to poorer estimation performance. The risk analysis approach can be applied to other stocks to evaluate the consequences of including an index of growth variation.
机译：由于缺乏决定何时包括这些指标的通用框架以及对增长动力的机械理解，年度增长变化的指标通常没有纳入渔业种群评估模型。这种合并也可能不一定导致改进的估计或管理性能。我们演示了一种将这种指数纳入评估模型的方法（股票综合），并使用风险分析来评估其与管理相关的优势和不足。我们将这种方法应用于裂鼻石鱼（Sebastes diploproa），那里以前发展的生长指数与年代际气候指数高度相关。我们发现，在模拟评估中包括相似的索引可以提高精度，并减少参数估计的偏差。但是，当增长受到强烈的气候驱动时，不包括指数或包括完全错误的指数会导致高度不精确的估计。当个人增长实际上是恒定的时，将该增长指数包括在内不会导致较差的估计性能。风险分析方法可以应用于其他股票，以评估包括增长变化指数在内的后果。

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