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首页> 外文期刊>ICES Journal of Marine Science >Organism impact assessment: risk analysis for post-incursion management
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Organism impact assessment: risk analysis for post-incursion management

机译：生物影响评估：入侵后管理的风险分析

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摘要

Risk analysis is a management tool that is becoming increasingly common in biosecurity because it aids decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A risk analysis model [referred to as an organism impact assessment (OIA)] is described, one that was developed in New Zealand to facilitate the management of incursions of introduced aquatic species in a post-border (after quarantine is breached) scenario. The New Zealand biosecurity risk-management framework assesses ecological, cultural, social, and economic values congru-ently, ensuring that a transparent and objective framework is established with clearly stated ecological and socio-political imperatives. Using expert heuristics and published and observed data, the present study assesses the likelihood that a target introduced species will have ecological, cultural, social, and economic impacts. The consequences (impact and/or change) of such events are then determined, to establish a relative risk ranking, using consequence matrices to aid assessment of the ecological, cultural, social, and economic value impacts of species unintentionally introduced to New Zealand. To illustrate the risk model, the OIA for the incursion of the fresh-water diatom Didymosphenia geminata is presented. The likelihood and consequences resulting in risk pertaining to the introduction of D. geminata varied across regions, but based on public perception at the initial incursion location, Southland, D. geminata was considered to be an extreme risk across all core values.
机译：风险分析是一种管理工具，在生物安全中正变得越来越普遍，因为它可以在面对不确定性时帮助决策。描述了一种风险分析模型[称为有机体影响评估（OIA）]，该模型是在新西兰开发的，用于在后边界（违反隔离规定后）的情况下促进对引进水生物种的入侵进行管理。新西兰生物安全风险管理框架对生态，文化，社会和经济价值进行了全面评估，以确保建立透明，客观的框架，其中明确规定了生态和社会政治方面的必要性。本研究使用专家启发法以及已发布和观察到的数据，评估了目标引进物种将对生态，文化，社会和经济产生影响的可能性。然后确定这些事件的后果（影响和/或变化），以建立相对风险等级，使用后果矩阵来帮助评估无意引入新西兰的物种的生态，文化，社会和经济价值影响。为了说明风险模型，提出了入侵淡水硅藻双枝线藻的OIA。引入D. geminata的风险的可能性和后果因地区而异，但根据公众对最初入侵地点的认识，D。geminata在所有核心价值上都是极端风险。

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