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An evaluation of business survey indices for short-term forecasting: Balance method versus Carlson-Parkin method

机译：短期预测业务调查指标的评估：平衡法与卡尔森-帕金法

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摘要

When questions in business surveys about the direction of change have three reply options, "up", "down", and "unchanged", a common practice is to release the results as balance indices. These are linear combinations of the response shares, i.e., the percentage share of the respondents who answered "up" minus the percentage share of those who answered "down". Forecasters traditionally use these indices for short-term business cycle forecasting. Survey response shares can also be combined non-linearly into alternative indices, using the Carlson-Parkin method. Using IFO and ISM data, this paper tests the relative performance of Carlson-Parkin type indices versus balance indices for the short-term forecasting of industrial production growth. The main finding is that the two types of indices show no difference in forecasting performance during the Great Moderation. However, the Carlson-Parkin type indices outperform the balance indices during periods with hieher output volatilities, such as before and after the Great Moderation.
机译：当业务调查中有关变化方向的问题具有三个答复选项：“上”，“下”和“不变”时，通常的做法是将结果发布为余额指标。这些是响应份额的线性组合，即回答“上”的受访者所占百分比减去回答“下”的受访者所占百分比。传统上，预测人员使用这些指数进行短期业务周期预测。还可以使用Carlson-Parkin方法将调查响应份额非线性地组合为替代指标。本文使用IFO和ISM数据，测试了Carlson-Parkin类型指数与平衡指数的相对表现，以短期预测工业生产增长。主要发现是，在大温和期间，两种类型的指数在预测表现上没有差异。但是，在输出波动较大的时期（例如大温和之前和之后），卡尔森-帕金类型指数的表现优于平衡指数。

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