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An econometric model for evaluating success/failure of an R&D project: the case of Korea

机译：评估研发项目成败的计量经济学模型：韩国为例

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The financial crisis in 1997, which led Korea to the IMF management system, had offered the realisation of the technological competitiveness, owing to the significant increase of the government R&D budget from 3.5 trillion won in 1999 to 12 trillion in 2009. This paper examines the impact of government R&D incentives on the technological outcome by analysing firms' investment behaviours subject to the Korea's technology development program. Based on a mathematical model considering uncertainty and consequently introduced hypotheses, an econometric model of technological outcomes is estimated on a project level with cross-sectional data from Korea's R&D program. With a single equation approach, it is found that the structure of investment is a far more significant factor than the total amount of investment and that cash investment is a positive factor and in-kind for negative. The larger the number of institutions involved in a project, the less likely it leads to success, and meeting the proposed deadlines without postponing is estimated to be a good barometer to predict the successful outcome of an R&D project.
机译：由于政府研发预算从1999年的3.5万亿韩元大幅增加到2009年的12万亿韩元，1997年导致韩国进入IMF管理体系的金融危机使技术竞争力得以实现。通过分析受韩国技术开发计划约束的公司的投资行为，分析政府研发激励措施对技术成果的影响。基于考虑不确定性并随后引入假设的数学模型，利用韩国研发计划的横截面数据，在项目层面上估算了技术成果的计量经济模型。通过单方程方法，可以发现投资结构是比投资总额更为重要的因素，现金投资是正因素，而负则是实物。参与项目的机构数量越多，成功的可能性就越小，并且在不延迟的情况下满足建议的截止日期被认为是预测研发项目成功结果的良好晴雨表。

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