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Risk analysis in paving operations using discrete event simulation: a case study of Taiwan permeable asphalt concrete pavement pilot road project

机译:采用离散事件仿真铺路运营风险分析 - 以台湾渗透沥青混凝土路面试验道路项目为例

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摘要

The simulation model used in this study is based on a construction project in Taiwan. In this study, STROBOSCOPE and EZStrobe were used as discrete-event simulation software to assess the potential risk of the construction in terms of time and cost. The construction process, the unit cost of the resources, and the operation time of each activity were modelled based on the actual construction procedure. A total of 30 replications was required for each scenario. Scenarios with real-world data inputs and eight other models were simulated using the software. The best scenario with the lowest cost and competitive time was selected as the base model for a sensitivity analysis. During the Sensitivity Analysis, the best model 8-R was generated by changing the number of labourers to 13 and Excavators to 3. Compared to the real-world project, the total costs were reduced by 11% and the total time was reduced by 58%. Moreover, the result of risk analysis based on scenario 8-R demonstrated that using a number of labourers, trucks, excavators, rollers, millers, and pavers less than the quantities that were used in the real-world data, the associated risk in term of cost and time will exceed the real-world project cost.
机译:本研究中使用的仿真模型是基于台湾的建设项目。在本研究中,牵引镜和ezstrobe被用作离散事件仿真软件,以评估在时间和成本方面的施工风险。建筑过程,资源的单位成本以及每个活动的操作时间都是基于实际施工过程建模的。每种情况都需要共有30个复制。使用该软件模拟具有现实数据输入和八种其他型号的场景。选择具有最低成本和竞争时间的最佳情景作为灵敏度分析的基础模型。在敏感性分析期间,通过将劳动者的数量改变为13和挖掘机来产生最佳型号8-R,与现实世界项目相比,总成本降低了11%,总时间减少了58 %。此外,基于场景8-R的风险分析结果证明,使用多个劳动者,卡车,挖掘机,滚筒,米勒和摊铺机比在现实世界数据中使用的数量,术语相关的风险成本和时间将超过现实世界的项目成本。

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