The effect of external shocks on macroeconomic performance and monetary policy in a small open economy: evidence from Zambia

Patrick Mumbi Chileshe; Keegan Chisha; Masauso Ngulube

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The effect of external shocks on macroeconomic performance and monetary policy in a small open economy: evidence from Zambia

机译：外部冲击对小型开放经济体中宏观经济绩效和货币政策的影响：赞比亚的证据

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摘要

This study investigates the impact of external shocks on domestic macroeconomic variables and monetary policy of a small open economy, Zambia using a structural VAR estimated with quarterly data covering the period Q1 2000 to Q1 2016. Results indicate that monetary policy is pro-cyclical in response to external shocks, while the dominant external shocks are commodity price shocks followed by financial shocks. This implies that external shocks are clear determinants of monetary policy direction in Zambia owing to their effect on key macroeconomic variable. In addition, results from impulse responses indicate that external shocks have significant effects on Zambia's macroeconomic performance. Specifically, commodity price shocks have significant effects on output and exchange rate while financial shocks have significant effects on prices and exchange rate.

机译：本研究使用结构性VAR估计了外部冲击对赞比亚小型开放经济体的国内宏观经济变量和货币政策的影响，该结构VAR估计了2000年第一季度至2016年第一季度的季度数据。结果表明，货币政策是顺周期的外部冲击，而主要的外部冲击是商品价格冲击，其次是金融冲击。这意味着，由于外部冲击对关键的宏观经济变量的影响，外部冲击显然是赞比亚货币政策方向的决定因素。此外，冲动响应的结果表明，外部冲击对赞比亚的宏观经济表现有重大影响。具体而言，商品价格冲击对产出和汇率有重大影响，而金融冲击对价格和汇率有重大影响。

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来源
《International Journal of Sustainable Economy》 |2018年第1期|18-40|共23页
作者
Patrick Mumbi Chileshe; Keegan Chisha; Masauso Ngulube;
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作者单位

Economics Department, Bank of Zambia, P.O. Box 30080, Bank Square-Lusaka, Zambia;

Economics Department, Bank of Zambia, P.O. Box 30080, Bank Square-Lusaka, Zambia;

Economics Department, Bank of Zambia, P.O. Box 30080, Bank Square-Lusaka, Zambia;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
external shocks; monetary policy; SVAR; monetary aggregate targeting; inflation targeting; impulse response function; forecast error variance decomposition; FEVD;

机译：外部冲击;货币政策;SVAR;货币总量定位;通胀目标;脉冲响应功能预测误差方差分解;FEVD;

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The effect of external shocks on macroeconomic performance and monetary policy in a small open economy: evidence from Zambia

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