Five-Year Plans

KEVIN FINNERAN

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Five-Year Plans

机译：五年计划

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The comically ambitious and perennially unrealized five-year plans that were a hallmark of the dysfunctional Soviet political system throughout the middle of the 20th century have discouraged serious thinkers from using the phrase. Perhaps because of fear of being associated with Soviet blunders, forward-looking policy gurus seem to prefer 10-year or 25-year outlooks. But having experienced the dizzying pace of developments in information technology and genetics in recent years, it requires a rich blend of hubris and foolishness to attempt long-term forecasts based on anticipated scientific and technological progress.

机译：滑稽可笑的雄心勃勃且多年未实现的五年计划是整个20世纪中叶苏维埃政治体系失调的标志，这使认真的思想家不愿使用这个短语。也许是因为担心与苏联的失误有关，所以前瞻性的政策专家似乎更倾向于10年或25年的前景。但是，由于近年来经历了信息技术和遗传学令人眼花pace乱的发展步伐，它需要自满和愚蠢的融合，才能根据预期的科学和技术进步进行长期预测。

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《Issues in Science and Technology》 |2009年第4期|21-22|共2页
作者
KEVIN FINNERAN;
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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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