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首页> 外文期刊>IZA Journal of European Labor Studies >Business cycle and spillover effects on pre-retirement behavior in Spain
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Business cycle and spillover effects on pre-retirement behavior in Spain

机译：商业周期和溢出效应对西班牙退休前行为的影响

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摘要

We test the hypothesis that exits from the labor market for pre-retirement individuals in Spain respond mainly to economic conditions and to incentives by analyzing two effects. First, we test the existence of spillover effects from a reform of the old-age pension system on transitions from employment to disability, unemployment and inactivity. We exploit the fact that the reform only affected individuals that had contributed between 15 and 25 years to the Social Security. Second, we estimate the effect of business cycle (BC) conditions at the local, sector and national level on these transitions. We find that both factors affect the exit timing and the choice of route out of the labor market.
机译：我们通过分析两种影响来检验西班牙退休前个人退出劳动力市场的假说主要是对经济状况和激励措施的反应。首先，我们测试了养老金制度改革对从就业到残疾，失业和无业的转变的溢出效应的存在。我们利用这样一个事实，即改革只影响对社会保障贡献了15至25年的个人。其次，我们估计在这些过渡过程中，地方，部门和国家层面的商业周期（BC）条件的影响。我们发现，这两个因素都会影响退出时间和退出劳动力市场的路径选择。

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