Before the end of this decade, China will have achieved stunning military hardware advances that will have significant implications for Taiwan and the US - as well as neighbouring countries. The most remarkable aspects of a surprisingly accelerated modernisation programme are in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Air Force and Second Artillery (the ballistic missile force). It is obvious from the scope of the modernisation that decisions were made at the highest level to be able, if needed, to overwhelm Taiwan's armed forces and to give the US concerns about the prudence of prompt intervention in a Taiwan crisis. It is far less clear how promptly and well China will, through training and exercises, bring to a fully operational status the modern equipment it is acquiring - a matter that warrants intense scrutiny.
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