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Lack of successors, firm default, and the performance of small businesses

机译：缺乏继承者，坚定的违约和小企业的表现

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摘要

We investigate the effects of the lack of successors on small businesses with an elderly manager. Using firm level data from Japan, a country with an aging population, we find the following results. First, smaller, younger, highly leveraged, and nongrowing firms are likely to have no successor. Second, firms with an elderly manager are more likely to exit and default if they have no successors, and this is particularly the case during the global financial crisis around 2009. This result suggests that these firms have less incentive to repay debts because they are not going concerns. As a result of the high probability of default, the annual change in bank borrowing is low if firms with an elderly manager have no successor. Third, the annual change of bank borrowing is lower for firms with no successor during the crisis and post-crisis periods, implying that banks reduce lending to these firms because of their high risk.
机译：我们调查缺乏继任者在与老年经理的小企业中的影响。 使用日本的公司级别数据，一个具有老龄化人口的国家，我们发现以下结果。 首先，较小，年轻，高度杠杆，非创业公司可能没有继承者。 其次，如果他们没有继承人，那么与老年经理的公司更有可能退出和违约，这是在2009年全球金融危机期间的案例尤其如此。这一结果表明，这些公司偿还债务的激励较少，因为它们不是 追求的问题。 由于违约概率很高，如果与老年经理的公司没有继承人，银行借款的年度变化很低。 第三，银行借款的年度变更对于在危机和危机后期没有继承人的公司较低，这意味着由于其风险高，银行因其而减少对这些公司的贷款。

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