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Pre-outcome Regret: Widespread and Overlooked

机译:结局后悔:广泛传播而被忽视

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Many real-life decisions (e.g. promises, plans and agreements) involve a time interval between when the decision is made and the main outcome is revealed. Nearly all regret studies focus on anticipated or experienced post-outcome regret. We argue that regret is also frequently experienced in the pre-outcome period, and that this 'pre-outcome regret' has other sources than regret experienced after the outcome is known. Regret experienced in the pre-outcome period has an important function post-outcome regret (usually) cannot have, namely to motivate the decision maker to reconsider the ongoing decision process and reverse the initial decision. Pre-outcome regret should for these reasons be distinguished from post-outcome regret, and studied separately. In two scenario studies, participants were asked to imagine their regret after agreeing to perform an inconvenient task. In both, more regret was reported before than after the event, even when they had imagined a 'worst case' outcome. In the third study, participants described a difficult choice from their own life. Again, regret was perceived as higher in the pre-outcome period than afterwards. In a fourth study, participants reported regret 'online' during an economic game (a version of the ultimatum game). They regretted their decisions more before than after they knew the outcome. We conclude that experienced pre-outcome regret is often stronger than post-outcome regret, and typically increases during the pre-outcome period. We suspect that the absence of JDM studies of pre-outcome regret is a legacy of the dominant gambling metaphor within decision research.
机译:许多现实生活中的决策(例如承诺,计划和协议)涉及做出决策与显示主要结果之间的时间间隔。几乎所有的后悔研究都集中在预期或有经验的结果后悔上。我们认为在预后阶段也经常发生遗憾,并且这种“预后后悔”除了知道结果后的后悔之外,还有其他来源。结果前期后悔(通常)不能具有重要的作用,结果后悔期(通常)是遗憾的,即激励决策者重新考虑正在进行的决策过程并逆转初始决策。由于这些原因,结局前的遗憾应与结局后的遗憾区分开来,并分别进行研究。在两个方案研究中,要求参与者同意执行不便的任务后想象自己的后悔。在这两种情况下,即使在他们想到“最坏的情况”的结果时,也要比事件发生后的事件多。在第三项研究中,参与者描述了自己生活中的困难选择。再一次,在预后阶段,人们感到后悔比之后更高。在第四项研究中,参与者报告说在经济游戏(最后通game游戏的一种版本)中“在线”感到遗憾。他们比知道结果之前更后悔自己的决定。我们得出结论,经历过的结果前遗憾通常比结果后悔更强,并且通常在结果前期间增加。我们怀疑,对JDM研究缺乏前瞻性后悔的研究是决策研究中占主导地位的赌博隐喻的遗产。

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