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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Cleaner Production >Building a sustainable development model for China's poverty-stricken reservoir regions based on system dynamics
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Building a sustainable development model for China's poverty-stricken reservoir regions based on system dynamics

机译：基于系统动力学的中国贫困水库地区可持续发展模型构建

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Poverty eradication and sustainable development are common missions of humanity and are top priorities of the Chinese government. Nevertheless, the poverty of reservoir immigrants is usually interwoven with eco-environmental and geo-disaster factors, making poverty alleviation the most challenging task in rural China. In this context, a System Dynamics Model (SDM) is used to explore interactive mechanisms of eco-environment, geo-disasters and immigrant poverty as well as enable policy makers to understand the impacts of different investment strategies on the key variables and the sustainable development of China's Poverty-stricken Reservoir Regions (CPRR). Based on data from 1998 to 2014, this paper simulates the Wanzhou reservoir area. It designs four policy scenarios to simulate changes to the major variables: sewage treatment investment, disaster control investment, soil erosion control investment and poverty alleviation fund, from 2015 to 2020. It is found that 1) China's Poverty-stricken Reservoir Regions are highly likely to achieve the poverty reduction goal by 2020 by taking the coordinated strategy and pay more attention to disaster management; and 2) the coordinated development scenario could reduce poverty, sewage discharge, disease incidence, geo-disasters and soil erosion, and increase the areas of forest cover and agricultural land systematically. The SDM method is reliable for the dynamic development analysis of CPRR. The results could offer policy recommendations to policy makers and provide a method to implement best practices for the sustainable development of CPRR. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：消除贫困和可持续发展是人类的共同使命，是中国政府的当务之急。然而，水库移民的贫困通常与生态环境和地质灾害因素交织在一起，这使减轻贫困成为中国农村地区最具挑战性的任务。在这种情况下，系统动力学模型（SDM）用于探索生态环境，地质灾害和移民贫困的互动机制，并使决策者能够了解不同投资策略对关键变量和可持续发展的影响中国的贫困水库地区（CPRR）。本文基于1998年至2014年的数据，对万州库区进行了模拟。它设计了四个政策情景来模拟主要变量的变化：污水处理投资，防灾投资，水土流失控制投资和扶贫基金，从2015年到2020年。发现1）中国的贫困水库区很有可能通过采取协调战略，到2020年实现减贫目标，更加重视灾害管理。 2）协调发展方案可以减少贫困，污水排放，疾病发生，地质灾害和水土流失，有计划地增加森林覆盖面积和农业用地面积。 SDM方法对于CPRR的动态开发分析是可靠的。结果可为决策者提供政策建议，并为实施CPRR可持续发展的最佳实践提供一种方法。 （C）2017 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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