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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control >Technical change, sectoral dislocation and barriers to labor mobility: Factors behind the great recession
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Technical change, sectoral dislocation and barriers to labor mobility: Factors behind the great recession

机译：技术变革，部门错位和劳动力流动的障碍：严重衰退的因素

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The global financial and economic crisis, which began in late 2007 (Great Recession) is the worst international crisis since 1929 (Great Depression), and still affects many countries. This paper attempts to determine if the theory of "extended crises" presented by Delli Gatti et al. (2012) is consistent with empirical evidence. The analysis is carried out using two approaches. The first part of the paper is purely descriptive and is dedicated to a comparison between structural differences and different patterns of development in six countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and US. Using data on the major world economies (KLEMS and STAN) since 1970, we show that the fundamentals behind the "extended crisis theory" apply to these economies. We focus particularly on Italy, Germany and the US. Among large economies, Italy is one of the most affected and still not recovering, even though the Italian financial sector appeared to have been less exposed to the 2008 shock than other countries. The crisis in Italy could be directly connected to the failure of the Italian economy to move to an economic system based on more skill-intensive production, in particular in the service sector (as in the US). The US financial sector was extremely exposed to the 2008 sub-prime crisis but US economy recovered much faster than in many European countries. Germany is the leading European economy, generally considered in European public debate as the example to be followed. In the last part of the paper the analysis is broadened, involving more countries in a panel analysis approach: different specifications of panel probit/logit models are presented, in a first attempt to investigate the roles of both structural features and financial shock in explaining the extent of the crisis in different countries. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：全球金融和经济危机始于2007年末（大萧条），是自1929年以来的最严重国际危机（大萧条），仍然影响着许多国家。本文试图确定Delli Gatti等人提出的“扩展危机”理论。 （2012）与经验证据是一致的。使用两种方法进行分析。本文的第一部分纯粹是描述性的，致力于比较六个国家（法国，德国，意大利，西班牙，英国和美国）的结构差异和不同的发展模式。使用1970年以来世界主要经济体（KLEMS和STAN）的数据，我们证明了“扩展危机理论”背后的基本原理也适用于这些经济体。我们特别关注意大利，德国和美国。在大型经济体中，意大利是受影响最严重的国家之一，但仍未恢复过来，尽管意大利金融业似乎比其他国家受2008年冲击的风险要小。意大利的危机可能与意大利经济未能转向建立以技能密集型生产为基础的经济体系直接相关，特别是在服务业（如美国）。美国金融业极度暴露于2008年的次贷危机，但美国经济的复苏要比许多欧洲国家快得多。德国是欧洲领先的经济体，在欧洲公众辩论中通常将其视为榜样。本文的最后一部分扩大了分析范围，使更多的国家参与了面板分析方法：提出了面板概率/对数模型的不同规范，这是首次尝试研究结构特征和金融冲击在解释金融危机中的作用。不同国家的危机程度。 （C）2017 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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