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Optimal monetary rules under persistent shocks

机译：持续冲击下的最优货币规则

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摘要

The tug-o-war for supremacy between inflation targeting and monetary targeting is a classic, yet timely topic, in monetary economics. In this paper, we revisit this issue within the context of a pure-exchange, overlapping generations model in which spatial separation and random relocation create an endogenous demand for money. We study AR(1) shocks to both real output and the real interest rate. Irrespective of the nature of the shocks, the optimal inflation target is always positive. Under monetary targeting, shocks to output necessitate negative money growth rates; for shocks to real interest rates, money growth rates may be either positive or negative depending on the elasticity of consumption substitution. Also, for output shocks, monetary targeting welfare-dominates inflation targeting but the gap between the two vanishes as the shock process approaches a random walk. In sharp contrast, for shocks to the real interest rate, we prove that monetary targeting and inflation targeting are welfare-equivalent only in the limit as the shocks become i.i.d. The upshot is that persistence of the underlying fundamental uncertainty matters: depending on the nature of the shock, policy responses need to be either more or less aggressive as persistence increases.
机译：通胀目标和货币目标之间的至高无上的拉锯战是货币经济学中一个经典而及时的话题。在本文中，我们将在纯交换，重叠世代模型的背景下重新审视此问题，在该模型中，空间分离和随机重定位会产生内生的货币需求。我们研究了AR（1）对实际产出和实际利率的冲击。无论冲击的性质如何，最佳通胀目标始终为正。在以货币为目标的情况下，对产出的冲击必然导致货币负增长；对于实际利率的冲击，货币增长率可能是正数或负数，这取决于消费替代的弹性。同样，对于产出冲击，以货币为目标的福利主导着通货膨胀目标，但是随着冲击过程接近随机游走，两者之间的差距消失了。与之形成鲜明对比的是，对于实际利率的冲击，我们证明了货币目标和通胀目标仅在冲击成为内在极限时才等同于福利。结果是潜在的基本不确定性的持久性很重要：根据冲击的性质，随着持久性的提高，政策应对措施应或多或少地采取积极措施。

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