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Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review

机译：时间折扣和时间偏好：批判性评论

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The DU model, which continues to be widely used by economists, has little empirical support. Even its developers―Samuelson, who originally proposed the model, and Koopmans, who provided the first axiomatic derivation―had concerns about its descriptive realism, and it was never empirically validated as the appropriate model for intertemporal choice. Indeed, virtually every core and ancillary assumption of the DU model has been called into question by empirical evidence collected in the past two decades. The insights from this empirical research have spawned new theories of intertemporal choice that revive many of the psychological considerations discussed by early students of intertemporal choice―considerations that were effectively dismissed with the introduction of the DU model. Additionally, some of the most recent theories show that intertemporal behaviors may be dramatically influenced by people's level of understanding of how their preferences change―by their "metaknowledge" about their preferences (see, e.g., O'Donoghue and Rabin 1999b; Loewenstein, O'Donoghue, and Rabin 2000).
机译：DU模型一直被经济学家广泛使用，但缺乏经验支持。即使是其开发人员（最初提出该模型的Samuelson和提供了第一个公理推论的Koopmans）也对其描述性现实主义表示担忧，并且从未经过经验验证它可以作为跨时选择的合适模型。实际上，过去二十年来收集的经验证据几乎质疑了DU模型的每个核心和辅助假设。这项经验研究得出的见解催生了新的跨时选择理论，该理论重振了跨时选择的早期学生所讨论的许多心理考虑，这些考虑随着DU模型的引入而被有效地消除了。另外，一些最新的理论表明，人们对偏好如何变化的理解水平可能会极大地影响跨时代行为，这取决于人们对偏好的“认识”（例如，参见O'Donoghue和Rabin 1999b； Loewenstein，O （Donoghue和Rabin，2000年）。

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