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Suit the action to the word, the word to the action: Hypothetical choices and real decisions in Medicare Part D

机译:使行动与行动相适应,使行动与行动相适应:Medicare D部分中的假设选择和真实决策

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摘要

In recent years, consumer choice has become an important element of public policy. One reason is that consumers differ in their tastes and needs, which they can express most easily through their own choices. Elements that strengthen consumer choice feature prominently in the design of public insurance markets, for instance in the United States in the recent introduction of prescription drug coverage for older individuals via Medicare Part D. For policy makers who design such a market, an important practical question in the design phase of such a new program is how to deduce enrollment and plan selection preferences prior to its introduction. In this paper, we investigate whether hypothetical choice experiments can serve as a tool in this process. We combine data from hypothetical and real plan choices, elicited around the time of the introduction of Medicare Part D. We first analyze how well the hypothetical choice data predict willingness to pay and market shares at the aggregate level. We then analyze predictions at the individual level, in particular how insurance demand varies with observable characteristics. We also explore whether the extent of adverse selection can be predicted using hypothetical choice data alone.
机译:近年来,消费者的选择已成为公共政策的重要组成部分。原因之一是消费者的口味和需求不同,他们可以通过自己的选择最轻松地表达。加强消费者选择的要素在公共保险市场的设计中尤为突出,例如在美国,最近通过Medicare D部分引入了针对老年人的处方药承保。对于设计此类市场的决策者来说,一个重要的实际问题是在这样一个新程序的设计阶段中,如何引入它,然后就可以推断出入学情况和计划选择偏好。在本文中,我们研究了假设选择实验是否可以在此过程中用作工具。我们结合了在引入Medicare D部分时得出的假设和实际计划选择中的数据。我们首先分析假设选择数据如何很好地预测总体水平上的支付意愿和市场份额。然后,我们在个人层面分析预测,尤其是保险需求如何随可观察的特征而变化。我们还探讨了是否可以仅使用假设选择数据来预测逆向选择的程度。

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