...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >Forecasting monthly energy production of small hydropower plants in ungauged basins using grey model and improved seasonal index
【24h】

Forecasting monthly energy production of small hydropower plants in ungauged basins using grey model and improved seasonal index

机译：使用灰色模型和改进的季节指数预测无沟流域小型水电站的月发电量。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A first-order one-variable grey model (GM(1,1)) is combined with improved seasonal index (ISI) to forecast monthly energy production for small hydropower plants (SHPs) in an ungauged basin, in which the ISI is used to weaken the seasonality of input data for the GM(1,1) model. The ISI is calculated by a hybrid model combining K-means clustering technique and ratio-to-moving-average method, which can adapt to different inflow scenarios. Based on the similar hydrological and meteorological conditions of large hydropower plants (LHPs) and SHPs in the same basin, a reference LHP is identified and its local inflow data, instead of the limited available data of SHPs, is used to calculate the ISI. Case study results for the Yangbi and Yingjiang counties in Yunnan Province, China are evaluated against observed data. Compared with the original GM(1,1) model, the GM(1,1) model combined with traditional seasonal index (TSI-GM(1,1)), and the linear regression model, the proposed ISI-GM(1,1) model gives the best performance, suggesting that it is a feasible way to forecast monthly energy production for SHPs in data-sparse areas.
机译：一阶一变量灰色模型（GM（1,1））与改进的季节性指数（ISI）相结合，以预测未开垦盆地中小型水电站（SHP）的月发电量，其中ISI用于减弱了GM（1,1）模型的输入数据的季节性。 ISI是通过将K-means聚类技术和移动平均比率方法相结合的混合模型来计算的，可以适应不同的流入情况。基于同一流域内大型水电站（LHP）和SHP的相似水文和气象条件，确定参考LHP并使用其本地入水数据代替SHP的有限可用数据来计算ISI。根据观察数据评估了中国云南省阳bi县和盈江县的案例研究结果。与原始GM（1,1）模型相比，GM（1,1）模型结合了传统的季节性指数（TSI-GM（1,1））和线性回归模型，提出的ISI-GM（1， 1）模型可提供最佳性能，这表明它是预测数据稀疏地区小水电每月能源生产的可行方法。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of Hydroinformatics》 |2017年第6期|993-1008|共16页
  • 作者

    Cheng Chun-Tian; Miao Shu-Min; Luo Bin; Sun Yong-Jun;

  • 作者单位

    Dalian Univ Technol, Inst Hydropower Syst & Hydroinformat, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China|Dalian Univ Technol, Minist Educ, Key Lab Ocean Energy Utilizat & Energy Conservat, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China;

    Dalian Univ Technol, Inst Hydropower Syst & Hydroinformat, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China;

    Dalian Univ Technol, Inst Hydropower Syst & Hydroinformat, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China|Tsinghua Sichuan Energy Internet Res Inst, Chengdu 610200, Sichuan, Peoples R China;

    Dalian Univ Technol, Inst Hydropower Syst & Hydroinformat, Dalian 116024, Peoples R China|Kunming Power Exchange Ctr, Kunming 650200, Yunnan, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    grey model; improved seasonal index; monthly energy production forecasting; small hydropower plant; ungauged basins;

    机译：灰色模型;改进的季节指数;月度发电量预测;小型水力发电厂;流域未开采;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号