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An agent-based modeling framework for sociotechnical simulation of water distribution contamination events

机译：基于代理的建模框架，用于水分配污染事件的社会技术模拟

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摘要

In the event that a contaminant is introduced to a water distribution network, a large population of consumers may risk exposure. Selecting mitigation actions to protect public health may be difficult, as contamination is a poorly predictable dynamic event. Consumers who become aware of an event may select protective actions to change their water demands from typical demand patterns, and new hydraulic conditions can arise that differ from conditions that would be predicted when demands are considered as exogenous inputs. Consequently, the movement of the contaminant plume in the pipe network may shift from its expected trajectory. A sociotechnical model is developed here to integrate agent-based models of consumers with an engineering water distribution system model and capture the dynamics between consumer behaviors and the water distribution system for predicting contaminant transport and public exposure. Consumers are simulated as agents with behaviors, including movement, water consumption, exposure, reduction in demands, and communication with other agents. As consumers decrease their water use, the location of the contaminant plume is updated and the amount of contaminant consumed by each agent is calculated. The framework is tested through simulating realistic contamination scenarios for a virtual city and water distribution system.
机译：如果将污染物引入给水分配网络，则大量的消费者可能会面临暴露的危险。由于污染是难以预料的动态事件，因此选择缓解措施来保护公众健康可能很困难。意识到事件的消费者可能会选择保护措施，以从典型的需求模式中改变其用水需求，并且会出现新的水力状况，不同于当需求被视为外来输入时所预测的状况。因此，污染物羽流在管网中的运动可能会偏离其预期轨迹。这里开发了一种社会技术模型，将基于代理的消费者模型与工程配水系统模型集成在一起，并捕获消费者行为与配水系统之间的动态关系，以预测污染物的运输和公众暴露。消费者被模拟为具有行为的主体，包括移动，用水，暴露，需求减少以及与其他主体的沟通。随着消费者减少用水量，污染物羽流的位置将更新，并计算每种药剂消耗的污染物量。该框架通过模拟虚拟城市和供水系统的实际污染场景进行了测试。

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