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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydroinformatics >A real options approach to the design and architecture of water supply systems using innovative water technologies under uncertainty
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A real options approach to the design and architecture of water supply systems using innovative water technologies under uncertainty

机译：不确定条件下使用创新水技术进行供水系统设计和架构的实际选择方法

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Water supply has become a priority for developed and developing nations of the world. Conventional water resources alone cannot meet the growing demand for water in urban cities. Management of the problem is amplified by uncertainty associated with different development strategies. Singapore has limited conventional water resources and progressively architects its water supply system through acquiring and sustaining multiple (alternative) water resources through innovative technologies. The full rationale and merits of such a policy cannot be properly understood based on traditional project valuation methods alone. This paper provides decision support using a real options approach by evaluating innovative water technologies from multiple perspectives under uncertainty. This paper demonstrates that incorporating innovative water technologies into water supply systems can concurrently improve water supply from the financial, political and socioeconomic perspectives. The development of innovative water technologies provides flexibility to the water supply system, and is a fundamental and effective means of risk management. The evaluation of innovative water technologies is based on an integrated real options approach, which provides decision support for architecting water supply systems under uncertainty. The approach gives specific tangible values for the water technologies and complements the general prescriptive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) framework.
机译：供水已成为世界发达国家和发展中国家的当务之急。单靠常规水资源已无法满足城市对水的日益增长的需求。与不同发展策略相关的不确定性加剧了问题的管理。新加坡的常规水资源有限，并通过创新技术获取和维持多种（替代）水资源，从而逐步设计其供水系统。仅凭传统的项目评估方法就无法正确理解这种政策的全部原理和优点。本文通过在不确定性下从多个角度评估创新水技术，使用实物期权方法提供决策支持。本文证明，从财务，政治和社会经济的角度来看，将创新的水技术纳入供水系统可以同时改善供水。创新水技术的发展为供水系统提供了灵活性，并且是风险管理的基本和有效手段。创新水技术的评估基于集成的实物期权方法，该方法为不确定性下的供水系统设计提供决策支持。该方法为水技术提供了具体的有形价值，并补充了一般性的综合水资源管理框架（IWRM）。

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