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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of product innovation management >Robust Testing of the Utility-based High-technology Product Sales Forecasting Models Proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa (2010)
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Robust Testing of the Utility-based High-technology Product Sales Forecasting Models Proposed by Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa (2010)

机译：Decker和Gnibba-Yukawa提出的基于实用程序的高科技产品销售预测模型的稳健测试（2010）

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摘要

Decker and Gnibba-Yukawa (2010) propose an elegant utility-based model for forecasting the sales of high-technology products and suggest that the model yields forecasts that are highly accurate. However, this finding is based on forecasts for a total of only six holdout observations shared across three products. This number of observations is insufficient for reliable inferences to be drawn about the accuracy of a method and the use of such a small data set runs counter to an accepted principle of forecast evaluation. The authors 'proposed model was tested on more extensive data and sensitivity analysis applied to the results. No evidence was found that the utility-based model could outperform a relatively simple extrapolative model despite the much greater effort involved in applying the proposed model. In addition, the utility-based model is only applicable for forecasting sales during a narrow interval in a product's life cycle and requires several periods of historic sales data before it can be implemented. It also depends heavily on the accurate estimates of parameters that are determined outside the model (and which may depend on difficult judgments by managers) and assumes that consumers or households will only purchase the product once between the launch date and the forecast horizon. In light of this, it is argued that the utility-based model is likely to have limited usefulness as a sales forecasting tool.
机译：Decker和Gnibba-Yukawa（2010）提出了一种基于实用程序的优雅模型来预测高科技产品的销售，并建议该模型得出的预测非常准确。但是，此发现基于对三种产品共有的总共六个保留观察值的预测。此数量的观察不足以得出关于方法准确性的可靠推论，而使用如此小的数据集与公认的预测评估原则背道而驰。作者提出的模型在更广泛的数据上进行了测试，并将敏感性分析应用于结果。没有证据表明，尽管在应用建议的模型中付出了更多的努力，但基于效用的模型仍能胜过相对简单的外推模型。此外，基于实用程序的模型仅适用于在产品生命周期的狭窄间隔内预测销售，并且在实现之前需要多个历史销售数据周期。它还很大程度上取决于在模型外部确定的参数的准确估计（并且可能取决于管理者的困难判断），并假设消费者或家庭在发布日期和预测范围之间只会购买一次产品。鉴于此，有人认为基于实用程序的模型作为销售预测工具的用途可能有限。

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