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Understanding of the concept of 'uncertain risk'. A qualitative study among different societal groups

机译：了解“不确定风险”概念。不同社会群体的定性研究

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摘要

In environmental health science, the concept uncertain risk' refers to situations in which epistemic uncertainties prevent definitive statements about the presence or existence of risk. The concept is difficult for risk communication and may easily lead to miscommunications and misunderstanding. This research investigated how the concept of uncertain risk is understood by different societal groups. We conducted in-depth interviews with the general public (N=40), and online open-ended questionnaires and online focus groups with scientists, policy makers and communication experts (N=49). Results show that the understanding of uncertain risk' varied within and between groups. While at least some representatives of all groups described epistemic uncertainties, groups focused on different aspects of risk. That is, scientists based their descriptions only on uncertainties in risk assessment. Policy makers commonly indicated that these uncertainties caused uncertainty in risk management. Communication experts mainly gave general descriptions, but recognized aspects that were important for other groups. Representatives of the general public often described aspects that deviate from the scientific understanding, such as a lack of personal control. In risk communication, stating that a risk cannot be excluded' is not clear. Different associations and understanding have to be taken into account in risk communication. Explicating uncertainties may improve consistent understanding and foster a more balanced dialogue between different societal groups. Further (empirical) research is needed to demonstrate if and how explicating evidence and uncertainties in specific cases of uncertain risks improves understanding within and between groups.
机译：在环境健康科学中，概念不确定的风险是指认知不确定性阻止有关风险存在或存在的最终陈述的情况。该概念难以风险沟通，并且可能很容易导致误解和误解。本研究调查了不同的社会群体如何理解不确定风险的概念。我们与普通公众（N = 40）进行了深入的访谈，以及与科学家，政策制定者和通信专家的在线开放的问卷和在线焦点小组（n = 49）。结果表明，对不确定风险的理解在内部和组之间变化。虽然至少一些所有群体的代表描述了认知的不确定性，但团体专注于不同的风险方面。也就是说，科学家只基于他们的描述，这些描述仅仅是风险评估中的不确定性。政策制定者通常表明这些不确定性导致风险管理的不确定性。沟通专家主要提出一般描述，但公认的方面对于其他群体很重要。一般公众的代表经常描述偏离科学理解的方面，例如缺乏个人控制。在风险沟通中，说明不能排除风险'尚不清楚。必须在风险沟通中考虑不同的协会和理解。透析不确定性可能会改善一致的理解和培养不同社会群体之间更加平衡的对话。进一步（实证）研究需要证明如果以及如何在特定的不确定风险案件中解析证据和不确定性，从而提高了群体内部和之间的谅解。

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  • 来源
    《Journal of risk research》 |2019年第6期|658-672|共15页
  • 作者

    Jansen Tom; Claassen Liesbeth; van Kamp Irene; Timmermans Danielle R. M.;

  • 作者单位

    Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm Ctr Sustainabil Environm & Hlth Bilthoven Netherlands|Vrije Univ Amsterdam Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst Dept Publ & Occupat Hlth Amsterdam UMC Amsterdam Netherlands;

    Vrije Univ Amsterdam Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst Dept Publ & Occupat Hlth Amsterdam UMC Amsterdam Netherlands|Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm Ctr Environm Safety & Secur Bilthoven Netherlands;

    Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm Ctr Sustainabil Environm & Hlth Bilthoven Netherlands;

    Vrije Univ Amsterdam Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst Dept Publ & Occupat Hlth Amsterdam UMC Amsterdam Netherlands|Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm Bilthoven Netherlands;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    uncertain risk; concept; risk communication; environmental health;

    机译：风险不确定;概念;风险沟通;环境健康;

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