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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >A SIMPLE FRAMEWORK FOR INCORPORATING SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INTO EXISTING WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
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A SIMPLE FRAMEWORK FOR INCORPORATING SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS INTO EXISTING WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

机译：将季节性流量预测纳入现有水资源管理实践的简单框架

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摘要

Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.
机译：基于气候的流量预报，再加上适应性的水库运行政策，可以潜在地改善水供应商和流域利益相关者的决策。但是，水供应商通常会警惕偏离他们当前的管理实践，并倾向于将预测合并到现有的系统建模工具中。本文提出了一个简单的框架，该框架可以在现有的管理结构中使用流量预测。气候预报器用于制定季节性流入预报。这些用于指定操作规则，该操作规则与将来（季末）储层状态的概率相关，而不是像现在所做的那样与当前存储相关。通过同时考虑当前的存储量和预期的流入量，可以提高达到管理目标的可能性。美国东北部的特拉华河上游流域用来证明这一基本思想。开发了基于物理的，基于气候的3月至4月水库入库量预报。系统的现有模拟工具和规则曲线用于将流入预测转换为储层水平预测。在预测期内对运营政策进行了修订，以便在水库水位较低的预测期间释放更少的水。后播模拟显示干旱紧急天数减少了1.6％，这是一项关键的性能指标。检查具有不同技能水平的预测以探索其效用。

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