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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >A STOCHASTIC MODELING APPROACH TO ADDRESS HYDROGEOLOGIC UNCERTAINTIES IN MODELING WELLHEAD PROTECTION BOUNDARIES IN KARST AQUIFERS
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A STOCHASTIC MODELING APPROACH TO ADDRESS HYDROGEOLOGIC UNCERTAINTIES IN MODELING WELLHEAD PROTECTION BOUNDARIES IN KARST AQUIFERS

机译：岩溶含水层井口保护边界建模中水文地质学不确定性的随机建模方法

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Development of any numerical ground-water model is dependent on hydrogeologic data describing the subsurface. These data are obtained from geologic core analyses, stratigraphic analyses, aquifer performance tests, and geophysical studies. But typically in remote areas, these types of data are very sparse and site-specific in terms of the aerial extent of the resource to be modeled. Uncertainties exist as to how well the available data from a few locations defines a heterogeneous surficial aquifer such as the Biscayne Aquifer in Miami-Dade County, Florida. This is particularly the case when an exceptionally conductive horizontal flow zone is detected at one site due to specialized testing that was not historically conducted at the other at sites that provided data for the model. Not adequately accounting for the potential effect of the high flow zone in the aquifer within a ground-water numerical model, even though the zone may be of very limited thickness, might underpredict the well field protection capture boundaries. Applied Stochastic ground-water modeling in determining well field protection zones is steadily becoming important in addressing the uncertainty of the hydrogeologic subsurface parameters, specifically in karstic heterogeneous aquifers. This is particularly important in addressing the uncertainty of a 60-day travel time capture zone in the Northwest Well Field, Miami-Dade County, where a predominantly high flow zone controls much of the flow in the production wells. A stochastic ground-water modeling application along with combination of pilot points and regularization technique is presented to further consolidate the uncertainty of the subsurface.
机译：任何数值地下水模型的开发都取决于描述地下的水文地质数据。这些数据是从地质岩心分析，地层分析，含水层性能测试和地球物理研究中获得的。但是通常在偏远地区，就要建模的资源的空中范围而言，这些类型的数据非常稀疏且针对特定地点。关于来自几个位置的可用数据定义非均质表层含水层的不确定性，例如佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德县的Biscayne含水层。当在一个地点检测到异常导电的水平流动区域时，尤其是这种情况，原因是专门提供的测试在历史上并未在另一个地点进行过专门的测试，而这是在提供模型数据的地点进行的。即使该区域的厚度可能非常有限，也不能充分考虑地下水数值模型中含水层高流动带的潜在影响，这可能会低估井场保护捕获边界。在确定井场保护区中应用的随机地下水模型在解决水文地质地下参数（尤其是在岩溶非均质含水层中）的不确定性方面正逐渐变得重要。这对于解决迈阿密-戴德县西北井场中60天旅行时间捕获区的不确定性特别重要，那里主要是高流量区控制着生产井中的大部分流量。提出了一种随机地下水模拟应用程序，并结合了控制点和正则化技术，以进一步巩固地下的不确定性。

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