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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management
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Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management

机译：开发用于水文学和水管理的季节性和季节性气候预测产品

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We describe a new effort to enhance climate forecast relevance and usability through the development of a system for evaluating and displaying real-time subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts on a watershed scale. Water managers may not use climate forecasts to their full potential due to perceived low skill, mismatched spatial and temporal resolutions, or lack of knowledge or tools to ingest data. Most forecasts are disseminated as large-domain maps or gridded datasets and may be systematically biased relative to watershed climatologies. Forecasts presented on a watershed scale allow water managers to view forecasts for their specific basins, thereby increasing the usability and relevance of climate forecasts. This paper describes the formulation of S2S climate forecast products based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Forecast products include bi-weekly CFSv2 forecasts, and monthly and seasonal NMME forecasts. Precipitation and temperature forecasts are aggregated spatially to a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit code 4 (HUC-4) watershed scale. Forecast verification reveals appreciable skill in the first two bi-weekly periods (Weeks 1-2 and 2-3) from CFSv2, and usable skill in NMME Month 1 forecast with varying skills at longer lead times dependent on the season. Application of a bias-correction technique (quantile mapping) eliminates forecast bias in the CFSv2 reforecasts, without adding significantly to correlation skill.
机译：我们描述了通过开发用于评估和显示分水岭规模的实时季节变化到季节（S2S）气候预测的系统来增强气候预测相关性和可用性的新措施。由于感知的技能低下，时空分辨率不匹配或缺乏知识或工具来获取数据，水管理人员可能无法充分利用气候预测的潜力。大多数预报都以大域地图或网格化数据集的形式散布，并且可能相对于分水岭气候有系统的偏见。分水岭规模的预报使水管理人员可以查看其特定流域的预报，从而提高了气候预报的可用性和相关性。本文介绍了基于气候预测系统版本2（CFSv2）和北美多模型集合（NMME）的S2S天气预报产品的制定。预测产品包括每两周CFSv2预测以及月度和季节性NMME预测。降水和温度预报在空间上汇总到美国地质调查局（USGS）水文单位代码4（HUC-4）分水岭规模。预报验证显示了CFSv2的前两个双周周期（第1-2周和第2-3周）中的重要技能，以及NMME第1个月预报中的可用技能，并且根据季节的不同，交货时间更长。偏差校正技术（分位数映射）的应用消除了CFSv2重新预测中的预测偏差，而没有显着增加相关技能。

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