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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management
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Developing Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecast Products for Hydrology and Water Management

机译：为水文和水管理季节性气候预测产品开发季节性气候预测产品

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摘要

We describe a new effort to enhance climate forecast relevance and usability through the development of a system for evaluating and displaying real-time subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts on a watershed scale. Water managers may not use climate forecasts to their full potential due to perceived low skill, mismatched spatial and temporal resolutions, or lack of knowledge or tools to ingest data. Most forecasts are disseminated as large-domain maps or gridded datasets and may be systematically biased relative to watershed climatologies. Forecasts presented on a watershed scale allow water managers to view forecasts for their specific basins, thereby increasing the usability and relevance of climate forecasts. This paper describes the formulation of S2S climate forecast products based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Forecast products include bi-weekly CFSv2 forecasts, and monthly and seasonal NMME forecasts. Precipitation and temperature forecasts are aggregated spatially to a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit code 4 (HUC-4) watershed scale. Forecast verification reveals appreciable skill in the first two bi-weekly periods (Weeks 1-2 and 2-3) from CFSv2, and usable skill in NMME Month 1 forecast with varying skills at longer lead times dependent on the season. Application of a bias-correction technique (quantile mapping) eliminates forecast bias in the CFSv2 reforecasts, without adding significantly to correlation skill.
机译：我们描述了一种新的努力，通过制定用于评估和显示季节性季节性（S2S）气候预测对流域规模的实时暂时性的系统来提高气候预测相关性和可用性。由于感知的低技能，不匹配的空间和时间分辨率，或缺乏摄取数据的知识或工具，水管理人员可能不会使用气候预测。大多数预测被传播放为大域地图或网格数据集，并且可以系统地偏向于流域气候。在流域规模上提出的预测允许水管理者查看其特定盆地预测，从而提高气候预测的可用性和相关性。本文介绍了基于气候预测系统2（CFSv2）和北美多模型集合（NMME）的S2S气候预测产品的配方。预测产品包括双周CFSv2预测，并每月和季节性NMME预测。降水和温度预测在空间上汇总到美国地质调查（USGS）水文单位代码4（HUC-4）流域等级。预测核查在来自CFSv2的前两个双周期（第1-2和2-3周）中的最明显的技能，且NMME月份的可用技能，以不同的技能在较季节的较长速度依赖于较大的技能。偏压技术（定量映射）的应用消除了CFSv2 ReforeCast中的预测偏差，而不显着地与相关技能显着增加。

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