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The Perpetual Student: Modeling Duration of Undergraduate Studies Based on Lifetime-Type Educational Data

机译：永生：基于终身型教育数据的本科学习持续时间建模

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摘要

It is important to educational planners to estimate the likelihood and time-scale of graduation of students enrolled on a curriculum. The particular case we are concerned with, emerges when studies are not completed in the prescribed interval of time. Under these circumstances we use a framework of survival analysis applied to lifetime-type educational data to examine the distribution of duration of undergraduate studies for 10,313 students, enrolled in a Greek university during ten consecutive academic years. Non-parametric and parametric survival models have been developed for handling this distribution as well as a modified procedure for testing goodness-of fit of the models. Data censoring was taken into account in the statistical analysis and the problems of thresholding of graduation and of perpetual students are also addressed. We found that the proposed parametric model adequately describes the empirical distribution provided by non-parametric estimation. We also found significant difference between duration of studies of men and women students. The proposed methodology could be useful to analyse data from any other type and level of education or general lifetime data with similar characteristics.
机译：对于教育计划者来说，估算入读课程的学生毕业的可能性和时标很重要。我们所关注的特殊情况是在规定的时间间隔内未完成研究时出现的。在这种情况下，我们使用适用于终生型教育数据的生存分析框架来研究10,313名学生在连续十个学年就读于希腊大学的本科学习时间分布。已经开发了非参数和参数生存模型来处理这种分布，以及用于测试模型拟合优度的修改程序。统计分析中考虑了数据审查，还解决了毕业和永续学生的门槛问题。我们发现，提出的参数模型充分描述了非参数估计提供的经验分布。我们还发现男女学生的学习时间之间存在显着差异。所提出的方法可能有助于分析来自任何其他类型和水平的教育数据或具有相似特征的一般终身数据。

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