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Planning profitable futures: the introduction of statistical planning techniques in American banks

机译：计划有利可图的期货：美国银行引入统计计划技术

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Much of the blame for the 2007-2008 economic and financial crisis was placed on the faith of bank managers, executives, and federal regulators in quantitative analysis, models, and equations. However, this article disputes the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's claim that quantitative analysis entered into banking with the hiring of quantitative analysts or 'quants' in the 1970s. Instead, the article traces the history of quantitative analysis in banking to the widespread introduction of planning techniques in the 1960s. The article demonstrates that in the 1960s nearly a quarter of all surveyed commercial banks had adopted planning techniques. These banks were active in their quest for new ways to lend and invest and for management strategies strengthened by statistical models and techniques that promised to enable bank executives and managers to calculatedly manage an unknowable future. Drawing on archival documents on Citibank's planning departments, the article highlights how planning techniques in the late 1960s influenced banks to enter more forcefully into the consumer credit market and guided the adoption of mostly unprofitable and high-risk bank credit cards. In the end, the article interrogates the history of the introduction of statistically based planning methods in bank management practices and how these techniques helped form a pathway to the validation of 'increased risk-taking' in American banking in the mid- to late twentieth century.
机译：2007-2008年经济和金融危机的大部分责任归咎于银行经理，高管和联邦监管机构在定量分析，模型和方程式上的信念。但是，本文对金融危机调查委员会关于在1970年代聘用定量分析人员或“数量”来进行定量分析进入银行业的说法提出了异议。取而代之的是，本文追溯了银行业定量分析的历史，追溯到1960年代广泛采用的计划技术。该文章表明，在1960年代，所有接受调查的商业银行中有近四分之一采用了计划技术。这些银行积极寻求借贷和投资的新方式，并寻求通过统计模型和技术得到加强的管理策略，这些统计模型和技术有望使银行高管和经理能够有计划地管理未知的未来。本文利用花旗银行计划部门的档案文件，重点介绍了1960年代后期的计划技术如何影响银行更强有力地进入消费信贷市场，并指导了大多数无利可图和高风险的银行信用卡的采用。最后，本文探讨了在银行管理实践中采用基于统计的计划方法的历史，以及这些技术如何帮助形成验证20世纪中叶至后期美国银行业“风险承担增加”的途径。 。

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