THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY-LOW INFLATION IN A BUBBLE ECONOMY

MARCUS MILLER; ISHITA MOHANTY; LEI ZHANG

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THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY-LOW INFLATION IN A BUBBLE ECONOMY

机译：泡沫经济中低稳定通货膨胀的错觉

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Econometric studies show that changes in real house prices are strongly autocorrelated in the UK, giving rise to prolonged departures from equilibrium. What happens when arbitrage is 'broken' and house prices no longer reflect future fundamentals? Adding a bubble to capture the disequilibrium behaviour picked up by econometricians, we show that a narrow focus on consumer price inflation-while neglecting house price disequilibrium-may for some time create the appearance of stability. But, with the bubble distorting policy and the economy on the way up and wreaking havoc on the banking system when it bursts, this is an illusion. For a bubble economy, new instruments of policy (such dynamic capital requirements and loan-to-value limits) are clearly needed-together with clear mandates as to who regulates what.

机译：计量经济学研究表明，在英国，实际房价的变化是高度自相关的，从而导致长期偏离均衡状态。当套利被“打破”并且房价不再反映未来的基本面时，会发生什么？通过添加一个气泡来捕捉计量经济学家们发现的不平衡行为，我们发现，将注意力集中在消费者价格通胀上，而忽略房价不平衡现象，则可能会在一段时间内形成稳定状态。但是，随着泡沫扭曲政策和经济不断攀升，并且在银行体系破裂时对其造成严重破坏，这是一种幻想。对于泡沫经济而言，显然需要新的政策工具（例如动态的资金需求和贷款至价值限制），以及明确的授权人来监管什么。

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《The Manchester school》 |2009年第suppla期|126-149|共24页
作者
MARCUS MILLER; ISHITA MOHANTY; LEI ZHANG;
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Department of Economics, University of Warwick;

Department of Economics, University of Warwick;

Department of Economics, University of Warwick;

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2. Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation? [J] . Gwangheon Hong, Bong Soo Lee The Journal of real estate finance and economics . 2013,第1期

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3. Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation? [J] . Gwangheon Hong, Bong Soo Lee The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics . 2013,第1期

机译：通货膨胀幻觉是否解释了房地产投资信托和通货膨胀之间的关系？
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5. Inflation in an open economy: Inflation bias, adaptive learning, and escape dynamics. [D] . Lin, Yo-Long. 2009

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6. How the banking system is creating a two-way inflation in an economy [O] . Ahmed Mehedi Nizam, Juan Carlos Cuestas, Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2020

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7. Financial Development and the Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy Do the distributional consequences of monetary policy depend on the extent of financial development? Should optimal monetary policy vary across countries? In order to answer these questions, we develop a monetary growth production model with heterogeneous agents. In our economy, optimal policy needs to weigh the effects of policy across two groups — capital owners and individuals who hold liquid assets. While banks help limit the exposure to inflation, there are limits because money alleviates the frictions of private information and limited communication. In this environment, we compare two economies that are identical in every aspect except for their level of financial development. In a country with limited financial development, a stock market is absent. In the other, an equity market is active. In either economy, inflation adversely affects capital formation and output. Individuals who hold liquid assets are always adversely affected by inflation, but the attitude of capital owners depends on the level of financial development. In particular, in the presence of a stock market, the impact of inflation on the welfare of capital owners is non-monotonic. Nevertheless, optimal monetary policy is always more conservative at higher levels of financial development. [O] . TINA M. Edgar A. Ghossoub, TINA M. Robert R. Reedy 100

机译：金融发展和货币政策的分配效应货币政策的分配后果是否取决于金融发展的程度？各国的最优货币政策应该不同吗？为了回答这些问题，我们开发了一个具有异构代理的货币增长生产模型。在我们的经济中，最优政策需要权衡两个群体的政策效应 - 资本所有者和持有流动资产的个人。虽然银行帮助限制通胀风险，但存在限制，因为资金减轻了私人信息的摩擦和有限的沟通。在这种环境下，我们比较两个经济体在各个方面都是相同的，除了它们的金融发展水平。在金融发展有限的国家，缺乏股票市场。另一方面，股票市场活跃。在任一经济体中，通胀都会对资本形成和产出产生不利影响持有流动资产的个人总是受到通货膨胀的不利影响，但资本所有者的态度取决于金融发展的水平。特别是，在股票市场存在的情况下，通货膨胀对资本所有者福利的影响是非单调的。尽管如此，在较高的金融发展水平下，最优货币政策总是更加保守。

THE ILLUSION OF STABILITY-LOW INFLATION IN A BUBBLE ECONOMY

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