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Fiscal Sustainability of India's National Food Security Act 2013

机译:印度《 2013年国家粮食安全法》的财政可持续性

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Forward-looking approaches to fiscal sustainability generally assess the fiscal implications of future programme-specific expenditure. This article attempts to assess the future fiscal implications of the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, for the Indian economy. The results, under the baseline scenario based on the projected debt-GDP ratio, indicate a modest increase till 2021-22 and then debt/GDP declines towards the current level of 70% in 2012-13, signifying fiscal sustainability. The dynamics of the projected baseline debt-GDP ratio are largely shaped by the provisions of the Act and underlying demographic factors during the projection horizon. Sensitivity analysis under different assumptions about productivity growth, the interest on government borrowing and primary deficit-GDP ratios show mixed results and hence provide necessary policy pointers towards restoring fiscal sustainability under the Act. Keeping the primary deficit-GDP ratio below 1.5 per cent through periodic upwards revisions in the issueprice of food grains, as envisaged in the Act, coupled with higher productivity growth and lower interest on government debt, would ensure long-term fiscal sustainability of the Act.
机译:财政可持续性的前瞻性方法通常会评估未来特定计划支出的财政影响。本文试图评估20​​13年《国家粮食安全法》(NFSA)对印度经济的未来财政影响。在基于预计债务与GDP比率的基准情景下的结果表明,到2021-22年,债务将适度增加,然后在2012-13两年期,债务/ GDP下降至目前的70%,这表明财政可持续性。预计基准债务与国内生产总值之比的变化在很大程度上取决于该法的规定以及在预测期内的基本人口因素。在关于生产率增长的不同假设,政府借款利息和主要赤字与GDP比率的不同假设下进行的敏感性分析显示出好坏参半,因此为恢复该法案下的财政可持续性提供了必要的政策指导。通过该法案的设想,通过定期上调粮食谷物的发行价格,将主要赤字占GDP的比率保持在1.5%以下,再加上生产率的提高和政府债务利息的降低,将确保该法案的长期财政可持续性。

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